Fabulous Four Horsemen

After reading all the obits, I still took Emmitt Smith with the third pick in the draft.

All the analysts talk about what a down season Smith had in 96. But his numbers were only down compared to Smith's own incredible past two seasons. He was tied for third in the NFL with 15 touchdowns scored. His 1204 rushing yards were eighth in the league.

When you've performed at such an unbelievable plateau for the last several years, anything less than 20 TDs and 1700 yards is considered a disappointment. But if any other back had put up those kind of numbers, would it be considered a "bad year?"

And the potential to dominate football still exists. Smith hurt his knee in the preseason and never seemed to recover. He was constantly battling injuries all year. He's healthy and will be in 95 shape going into this year. Having Michael Irvin and Anthony Miller for a full year will keep the defenses a little more honest this season.

And if he doesn't rebound, I guess I'm just stuck with 15 TDs and 1204 rushing yards.

A lot of talent fell into the second round and I remained hopeful that QB Drew Bledsoe would continue to fall. He was taken with the pick before mine, and was the last remaining quarterback that I felt was worth a top two round selection. On the positive side, there were four players that I had in the 14-17 range that had fallen to my 22nd position.

I strongly considered an offer from Petros/Terry Cannon to move from 2/10 to 3/6 which would have allowed me to swap a 10th round pick for a seventh round pick. With my next pick coming up at 3/3, there was an even chance that I would have been able to still get a mid-second round guy in the third round.

I ended up turning the deal down because I still think you win with quality rather than quality and I would have dropped down considerably in quality if all the players I liked had been nabbed before 3/3. I didn't want to take the risk of losing a player on this plateau.

Even though WR is the deepest position right now, Tony Martin is just too good of a player to pass up. There are a lot of quality WRs left, but I believe Martin has the track record to separate him from the rest of the pack. I put him on a plateau just below the level of Jerry Rice, Carl Pickens, Herman Moore and Isaac Bruce.

His 14 touchdowns were tied for first with Michael Jackson for receiving and tied fourth in all of football. Combined with his 1171 receiving yards, he was the 10th highest scoring non-kicker in FanEx last season and the highest scoring WR. This follows a 1995, where he put up 1224 yards and 90 receptions and scored six touchdowns. When you are drafting in May, it is important to try and find players that are consistent. You don't won't to do much gambling here.

I'm also encouraged that Kevin Gilbride will be taking over in San Diego. I think Bobby Ross is a terrific coach and will do well in Detroit, and Martin flourished under him. Gilbride is a little more wide open than Ross and Martin's opportunities have a chance to increase.

While Martin will be hard pressed to put up 14 TDs, I believe it is realistic to expect 10 from Martin this year along with 1200 yards.

Trade Analysis:
The decision to trade down from 3/3 to 3/6 was easy. I took took Tony Martin at 2/10 and had a #1 RB (Emmitt Smith) and a #1 WR (Tony Martin) that I really liked. Everybody left in the third round had serious questions. If Chris Warren hadn't gone at 3/2 I probably would have taken him here. Instead I'll let Greg Kellogg worry about whether it was the bone spur that had Warren falling off the face of the earth or was it a complete loss of competitive spirit.

Since there was nobody I just had to have here, I offered Terry Cannon the pick in to trade down to 3/6. He agreed and I was able to exchange my 8/10 for his 7/6, an improvement of 12 slots to move down three places in the third.

Speaking of worrying about the mental/physical status of wayward running backs......

Pick Analysis:
In my first real reach in the draft (it's the third round, don't worry, there will be more) I roll the dice on Natrone Means.

This was more of a decision of strategy over player performance. Means is not the top rated player available right now on my draft board. But because of the early run on RBs and what is possibly erupting into a second run, there are only a couple of backs left that I really like.

There are a lot of receivers that would be fine #1 receivers left on the board and there are still even more that I like as sleepers. I have a WR that I really like in Tony Martin to anchor whoever I get later.

It came down to position scarcity.

I was hoping Marshall Faulk would fall here, (boy, am I getting sick of typing "I was hoping so-and-so would fall here") but he goes the pick right before this.

Means is a gamble I can afford to take as my #2 running back with Emmitt Smith as my lead horse. If Means hits, I have a legitimate shot at having the best backfield in the league.

This was a decision between two running backs that played well at the end of their seasons last year. Bam Morris came down the stretch with something to prove for the Ravens, which he did. Means had been unceremoniously dumped by San Diego last offseason and then battled injuries the first three-quarters of the year while watching James Stewart have a big season.

I went with Means for a couple of reasons: First, I still don't trust Morris. The baggage of the drug suspension still scares me and so does his history of getting lazy and putting on weight when things are going well.

When Means was finally healthy, he was the back the Jacksonville hoped he would be. The Jags were disparate to win all their games down the stretch to make the playoffs. In the last three games of the regular season, Means averaged 25 carries while picking up 269 yards and a pair of TDs. He was dominant in the Jags run to the AFC championship game, picking up 315 yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries.

I'm also encouraged by Stewart's eight touchdowns in his 13 games. The Jags have a reputation as a wide open passing team because of Brunell. But coach Tom Coughlin is conservative and he liked to punch it in once the team got into the red zone.

It's realistic to expect Means to return to 1000 yard form and be one of only a handful of running backs in double digit touchdowns.

Means is playing for a contract. He is made it known that he would like to stay in Jacksonville. That should be enough incentive to keep him away from the Big Macs.

Is this too early for McNair? Possibly.

This is a guy that I targeted for the fifth round. I really was planning on taking another wide receiver here and picking McNair with the third choice in the fifth.

In the mock drafts I have seen, I haven't seen him go late fourth round. But, the more I think about McNair, the better I like him. There are still a few more teams that haven't taken a quarterback that select before I come back up early in the fifth round. I don't want to get burned like I did with Eddie George last year and watch a player I really like get snatched a round early because of a preconceived notion of where he should go.

I think all the tools are there for McNair to be an outstanding NFL quarterback:

1) This guy has incredible physical tools. Great arm, quick release, can scramble, can throw on the run and can burn you running the ball. He has talent on the level of Steve Young, Mark Brunell and Randall Cunningham in his prime.

2) He has a very good team around him. He will get good protection from his line, depth at receiver, including tight end and running back, a smart NFL coach to call the shots and an up-and-coming NFL star running back to keep defenses honest. Chris Chandler put up good numbers with the Oilers last couple of years. Chandler is an underrated NFL QB, but McNair has a lot more upside than Chandler.

3) I like the way he has been handled. Other early first round choice QBs that have been thrown to the wolves lately, and it has hurt Heath Shuler's and Trent Dilfer's career. The Oilers have been smart in working McNair into the offense, but slowly. Notice the improvement in McNair's stats from his first to his second year. His completion percentage improved from 51.3 to 61.5 percent, his yards-per-attempt improved from 7.11 to 8.37 and his quarterback rating improved from 81.7 to 90.6. Now that he enters his third season, McNair is prepared to take over the starting role.

The downside is that Jerry Rhome is gone as offensive coordinator. Rhome is a brilliant offensive mind and the Oilers will miss him. Part of the reason for McNair's improvement is Rhome's tutelage. And with Rhome gone, Fisher has been public that he wants to feature the running game and George more.

Still, McNair can be part of the running game. He has a chance to emerge as a star this year and I like his upside better than any quarterback remaining. And I don't want to risk not getting him in the next round like I planned.

As a general rule, I avoid rookie receivers like the plague. A lot of people know the stories about Jerry Rice's and Sterling Sharpe's subpar rookie seasons. JJ Stokes didn't set the world on fire despite being drafted with the 10th pick by the 49ers. As a general rule, rookie receivers do not live up to their hype and go too early. Owners remember they got burned the year before. WRs drafted high the year before fall in the second year.

Last year was an exception. Four rookie receivers put up solid numbers. Keyshawn Johnson was the most closely watched. He was the first WR drafted number one overall since Irving Fryar. Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison and Terry Glenn all had fine seasons as well.

I came very close to taking Kennison in this spot. I love his explosiveness. It came down to fact that Johnson is considered a slightly better physical talent and that he is the number one target on his team.

Unfortunately, Johnson has gained as much notoriety for his attitude as he did for his 844 yards and 8 touchdowns.

He didn't help matters with his "Give Me the Damn Ball" expose where he openly knocked anyone and everyone, including quarterback Neil O'Donnell.

Still, the talent is there. He picked up eight TDs and 844 yards on the worst team in the NFL. Going into last season, I thought the Jets had a chance to go 8-8. They had upgraded their offensive line, quarterback and drafted wide receivers with their first two picks.

Bill Parcells doesn't have to be a genius to significantly improve the Jets. The talent is well above the 1-15 level. As the Jets improve on the field, so will Johnson's numbers.

Also, I like Johnson's pedigree. He wasn't the top-rated player taken by default. There were clubs that were interested in trading up to number one overall to take him.

As for the attitude, it's big news in the offseason but this will blow over by the first game of the exhibition season. If Keyshawn is open, and he has the talent to get open a lot, O'Donnell will get him the ball. Or as Keyshawn would say, "Get Him the Damn Ball."

Johnson isn't the first receiver to publicly whine about not getting used enough. Even Jerry Rice has complained in public. That's part of being a great receiver. You are cocky enough to believe that you are open on every play.

If cockiness is a benchmark, Keyshawn will catch 320 balls for 4000 yards and 24 touchdowns. I'll settle for 1060 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Decisions, decisions, decisions.....

I need a third WR and a TE.

I was planning on going WR, but the run in the fifth and sixth round (including my Keyshawn Johnson pick in the fifth) has wiped out every receiver that I had on this plateau. The guy I had really hoped would fall here was Chris Sanders.

I can either fill a position of need and "reach" for a starter now, or take a player that I have on a higher plateau that might not see much action for me.

I have always been an advocate of never drafting a player at the end of a position run. In other words, don't drop down on your draft list and miss an opportunity to take a better player.

Now comes the hard part, do you take a player here knowing that you may be the only person that likes him this high? Looking at the three teams that draft in the four selections before my seventh round choice, the Wonder is still looking for a starting RB. I would rather take the gamble of drafting Biakabatuka too early rather than the frustration of missing a guy I like.

With two picks coming up in the seventh round, I can afford to take a player that may not be on the board when I come back up at 7/3 and worry about filling specific needs in the seventh.

Biakabatuka is coming off knee surgery and before that, a contract holdout that completely wiped out his rookie training camp. Critics will argue that this is the second coming of Ki-Jana Carter.

I would never take Biakabatuka as my lead back. I'd be nervous if he was my number two back. But he has the biggest upside of any back left on the board. Remember, this is a guy that was drafted ahead of Eddie George and Karim Abdul-Jabbar last year. His physical skills are at that level.

Here are the other reasons I am high on Biakabatuka:

1)I like how quickly Biakabatuka made the transition once he did get into camp. Despite signing in late August he played just a little over a week later and was in excellent condition.
2)All reports I have seen say that Biakabatuka is completely recovered from the surgery.
3)I believe in Bill Pollian. This is one of the most astute talent evaluators in the NFL. Pollian is planning on building the offense around the guy. That's a pretty heavy endorsement.
4)I know Anthony Johnson had a good year in 96. But Johnson is comfortable playing fullback. He won't complain about caddying for Biakabatuka. If Biakabatuka plays at the level the Panthers and I anticipate, he will be the featured guy.
5)He has a great supporting cast. The Panthers use a ball control offense on a team built around the defense. Carolina has a dangerous enough passing game to keep the defenses honest and a better than average offensive line.

I am hopeful for at least 800 yards and 7 TDs.

It's hard to pass up a team's top receiver when he is still on the board, especially when he had Dan Marino throwing too him. I know that Barnett isn't what he used to be, and Marino may not be either. But Barnett is still a legitimate fantasy football starter.

First, Barnett's recovery from knee surgery last year was near miraculous. He was expected to miss the entire season, but he came back and played in nine games.

Despite playing with a quarterback the was new to him, Barnett quickly became an integral part of the offense and Marino's favorite target. He played in nine games and caught 36 passes for 562 yards and three touchdowns and a 15.6 average per catch. Over a 16-game season, that projects to 64 catches for 1000 yards and five touchdowns. Not bad numbers for my third starting wide receiver.

But if you take a look at what Barnett did over the last four games of the season, when he had a chance to really get into the rhythm of the offense, it's even more impressive. Barnett caught 17 balls for 342 yards and a 20.1 average per catch. The Dolphins other starting receiver, OJ McDuffie, caught 18 balls for 175 yards and a 9.7 average per catch. Projecting those numbers over the course of the season, Barnett would catch 68 passes for 1368 yards and four TDs. Barnett was the 18th highest scoring receiver in the FanEx scoring system the last four weeks of the NFL system.

The 20.1 yard-per-catch average supports the fact that Barnett didn't lose his ability to make big plays. In fact, over the last four weeks of the season, only three receivers with at least eight catches had a higher average-per-catch than Barnett. There is also the upside of improved timing between Marino and Barnett with half a season and a full training camp to continue to work together.

McDuffie is still a very good possession receiver on the other side of the ball. I took McDuffie over Barnett last year and expected McDuffie to emerge as a star. He put up good numbers, but it became clear he didn't have the explosiveness to stretch the defenses. Once Barnett came back, McDuffie was comfortable working the short routes. He will keep defenses from double covering Barnett.

So will Yatil Green. He has great tools. Imagine a receiver as big as Michael Irvin with sprinter speed. But NFL scouts were concerned that he was raw when it came to the mechanics of receiving. Like most rookie receivers, it will take him a year or so to catch on in the NFL. And Marino has no patience for receivers that run sloppy routes.

I understand the days of Marino throwing 35 touchdowns and Barnett going to the Pro Bowl are over. But I still think a 1000 yard/five touchdown season from Barnett is realistic.

Drafting Rob Moore is like going to Baskins -Robbins and ordering vanilla. It's dull and boring, but at least you're sure of what you're getting.

Same way with Moore. He is not very exciting. Nobody goes, "Wow, Rob Moore makes this team an instant contender." He doesn't have the big upside to potentially come up with 12 TDs and 1400 yards.

But you can almost set your calendar to Moore's 4-5 TDs and 900-1000 yards. Different teams, different offensive coordinators, different quarterbacks, it doesn't matter.

His totals over the last three years:

Pretty good numbers for a number four wide receiver. And, an excellent insurance policy for Fred Barnett, who does have a history of injury.

Moore is one of the most durable receivers in the league. He played through a broken hand with the Jets in 94. In fact, I seriously thought about taking Moore at 7/3.

Tight end is the biggest area of need right now, and the upcoming run on the position will deplete every tight end I have at this plateau. But, the opportunity to get a backup of this caliber at a key position can't be passed up.

Through seven rounds, I've got starters at everywhere but tight end and kicker with viable backups at running back and wide receiver. I'm hoping I can still find a quality tight end in the ninth or tenth round.

Trade Analysis:
There is a small advantage to drafting in the third position, or as I call it, "on the corner." After the 8/10 announcement, there were four picks coming up before my selection at 9/3, but only two teams to analyze. I can look at the rosters of Clones and Wonder and reasonably predict their moves and get an idea of who may or may not be available at 9/3. It would be harder to do this if I had the seventh pick in the draft and I was trying to predict what four different teams were going to do.

There were two tight ends I had on the same plateau with a drop off after that. I decided I wanted Frank Wycheck more than I wanted Brent Jones for reasons I'll explain in the pick analysis. Looking at the two teams drafting before I came up, I know that Sam Caplan would probably take a TE with either 8/11 or 9/2. Since the Wonder had taken Wesley Walls in the third round, I figured he was not looking at a tight end.

Sam took Chris T. Jones at 8/11. Sam probably also figured that Wonder wasn't looking at a TE, and decided to wait until 9/2 thinking that he would get the same tight end he would have taken at 8/11.

I have a hunch that Sam and I are looking at the same player. If I want Wycheck more than Jones, I probably had to make a move.

I went to Wonder and told Bob Harris up front that I was looking at Wycheck. That way Harris would know he would probably get the same player if he made the trade. I then offered him my 9/3 and 10/10 for his 9/1 and 10/12. It gives me the chance to leapfrog the Clones and get the player I went rather than have to settle for the player that Sam left me. And I only lose two slots in the 10th round. The Wonder will get the same player they would have picked anyway, and move up two slots in the 10th round for free.

Pick Analysis: There are two tight ends that are on a plateau by themselves, Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. Wesley Walls had a spectacular 96 and if he repeats those numbers in 97, will join that class. After that, you are looking at a group of players that are probably 4-6 touchdowns and 400-500 yards. Ken Dilger has the potential to break out, but I still put him on the same plateau with Mark Chmura, Jamie Asher, Rickey Dudley, Brent Jones and Frank Wycheck.

My strategy was to wait until as long as I could to take any player from this plateau or take a flyer on Troy Drayton.

In the ninth round, the only two players left are Wycheck and Jones. I like Wycheck better than Jones. Wycheck emerged last year with 6 touchdowns and 511 yards. In 95, he only had two scores but gained 471 yards. With McNair at quarterback full time, the Oilers passing game may look deeper than it did the last couple of seasons. Still, I think it is reasonable to expect 4 touchdowns and 500 yards from Wycheck.

As a young player on the upswing, he is a safer selection than the aging Brent Jones, who has been ineffective due to injuries the last two seasons.

Trade Analysis:
When I read analysis and projections of the strengths of the teams in the league, the big question mark I consistently see being raised about mine is Steve McNair at quarterback.

It's a legitimate point that is being raised. Despite his great physical ability and the fact that the Oilers have a pretty good offense around him, this is the first time that the show has been completely turned over to him. I'm convinced he'll be fine, but he is unproven.

Therefore, I want to hedge my bet a little bit at backup quarterback. I was very close to taking Dan Marino with my second pick in the seventh round. But I couldn't bring myself to take a backup quarterback in the seventh round. The opportunity to get as consistent of a producer as Rob Moore as my number four wideout couldn't be passed up. The number four WR plays at least three games in this league and eventually will be more valuable than a backup QB.

The two players I had targeted taking with either my late 10th round or early 11th selections were Elvis Grbac and Kerry Collins. I think I both are positioned for breakout seasons.

Both went in the ninth round, which left the usual suspects remaining for backup slots, Jim Harbaugh, Neil O'Donnell, Troy Aikman, etc. If Drew Bledsoe had fallen to me in the second round, I would be more likely to take my chances with one of them with my 11.03 pick and shored up wide receiver or running back with my 10.12 pick.

The reason I pursued Collins instead of Grbac is because Collins was drafted late ninth as opposed to Grbac, who was drafted early ninth. Because of where he was drafted, I thought I could get Collins cheaper. If Collins had been drafted ahead of Grbac, I would have gone after Grbac. I think both are going end up in the top 15 this season.

This trade even got more interesting. When I first approached John Hansen about the 10.12 and the 11.03 for Collins and his 11.09 he asked me about what it would take to make Tshimanga Biakabatuka part of the package. When we couldn't figure anything out there, we went back to the draft choices.

John agreed to the trade with the proviso that a quarterback he wanted as a backup would still be available at 10.12. I was a little nervous since I didn't know who the player was (turns out it was Neil O'Donnell) and both the Destroyers and Wonder needing a quarterback with picks before 10.12. But when O'Donnell was still available, the trade quickly went through.

I got the player I wanted and John gets two players in the next four picks when there is still some quality talent still available.

The reason I appreciated working with John is that he was decisive. He gave me a quick answer and still protected himself by making the trade contingent on the player he wanted being available at 10.12.

Here's some trade advice. Whether you do the deal or not, never leave a trading partner hanging. If someone comes to you with a trade offer and you're not prepared to make a decision on the spot, tell your partner that you need some time do a little research and you will get back with them by a specific time. Conversely, if you go to someone with a deal and he won't make a decision, try to at least get them to make a commitment as to when they can give you an answer. Nothing is worse is than working with someone that can't make up his mind. This is why I feel Terry Cannon is able to make so many trades. Negotiations never drag with him. People come to him with trades knowing that they'll get a decision either way.

Player Analysis:
Kerry Collins is one of my real sleepers for 1997. In his first two years, the Panthers offense has been rather pedestrian as Carolina has built around its defense and not turning the ball over.

His first two years in the league, he has thrown in 14 both seasons, which suggests Troy Aikman more than it does Dan Marino.

But Carolina has slowly been stockpiling weapons on offense. Its first year in the league, the focus was almost entirely on defense other than drafting Collins.

But things are changing. The offensive line is young and improving as witnessed by the success that Anthony Johnson had.

I love the weapons that Collins have to work with. Last year Muhsin Muhammad developed to the point that the Panthers were comfortable letting Willie Green go. Wesley Walls emerged as a premiere tight end in the league. Rae Carruth can fly. Carruth was projected to go as high as 7 in the draft to the Giants and somehow falls to the Panthers. Rehab Ismail is reportedly rededicated himself and has been a revelation in workouts in mini camp and workouts. Biakabatuka will upgrade the running game, but Johnson is still around to provide a steady target out of the backfield.

As most young quarterbacks with his ability, Collins got better as the season progressed. His interception ratio dropped from 4.3 percent his rookie year to 2. 4 last year. Remember, in FanEx interceptions are minus-2 points. With the Panthers needing to sweep its last three games to win the division title, Collins threw six of his 14 TD passes. Most impressive was his 327 yards and three scores in San Francisco in week 15.

Collins won't be available in the ninth round next year. I had him on the same plateau with McNair, Grbac, Brad Johnson and Marino.

Is there another non-kicker at this point in the draft that has a chance to be a top 10 player at his position the way Lamar Smith does?

I was approached right before I came on the clock by Sam Caplan of the Clones offering me his 12.11 and 13.02 for this 11.11 and my 16.10. He wanted Erric Pegram, who went the pick right before mine to the Death Squad so I didn't have to make the decision. If Pegram had been there and I knew Sam was going to take him and not Lamar Smith, I would have considered it.

Still, it would have been hard to pass up Smith at this point in the draft, because running backs are scarce. All the sure featured backs are gone. All the possible featured backs are gone. Almost all the players in running back by committee situations are gone, too.

I think Smith has the most potential of any backup running back in football and is head-and-shoulders above any backup left in the draft.

Last season Chris Warren was banged up and complained about his offensive line, causing him to be one of the biggest busts in all of fantasy football. Meanwhile, behind the same "porous" offensive line, Smith ran for 680 yards on a 4.4 yard per carry average and scored eight times. Smith is no flash in the pan. If you look at his 1995 numbers, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry.

Smith fell this low because Warren is reportedly healthy again and will once again be featured. But the Warren I saw last year just didn't run as hard. After what Smith did last year, there is no way he won't be used in 96.

I expect him to get at least 25 percent of the carries.

Worst case scenario for Smith: Warren rebounds and has a great year and Smith is used only for spot duty. Translation: 90 carries, 360 yards 4 TDs.

Best case scenario for Smith: Warren continues his subpar performance and Smith beats him out. Behind an improved Seattle offensive line, Smith carries 267 times for 1175 yards and 13 TDs.

First round tight ends are historically boom or bust situations. I have a feeling Gonzalez is going to be a boom.

This is an incredible athlete. In addition to a standout junior season on the California football team (44 catches, 5 TDs, 15.9 yards-per-catch) he was a big part of the Golden Bears basketball team making it to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.

I really like what the Chiefs have done with their offense in collecting playmakers. New quarterback Elvis Grbac is in a position to succeed and Gonzalez has a chance to be a prime benefactor. Grbac has a history of looking for the tight end around the end zone in San Francisco.

The biggest concern about Gonzalez, other than the inconsistent track record of rookie tight ends, is the acquisition of former 49er Ted Popson. Popson is good enough to compete for playing time and possibly start.

But I'm betting there is a reason the Chiefs scouting department traded up to get him and other teams were drooling over him.

I was going over the stats when I saw the following commercial while watching wrestling:

"Hi, remember me? I'm the wide receiver that the 49ers mortgaged their future for in 1995 so they could trade up and take me with the 10th pick overall. I was considered a value pick last season when I went in the fourth or fifth round in most fantasy drafts.

But then I started watching the Michael Westbrook/Robert Smith/Bo Jackson Workout Video and started spending more time in the trainers room than than the end zone.

That's why when I go to the hospital to get my latest injury treated, I always carry the American Express Card!

The American Express Card.... Don't watch your career go down the tubes due to injuries without it."

I'm taking Stokes purely on potential. It was going to be a battle in training camp between Stokes and Terrell Owens for the starting spot for the 49ers. Owens' injury gives Stokes one last chance to reassert himself. If Owens' wasn't going to be out until the third preseason game, I probably wouldn't have made this pick.

Remember, this is a guy who caught four touchdowns and gained 517 yards as a rookie two years ago --- despite missing time due to injuries.

I waited as long as I could before taking a kicker. But with the Clones still needing a kicker with two selections coming up before my pick in the 15th round, it's time. Plus, some of the teams that already have kickers have already started taking backups.

If the Cowboys' and 49ers' jobs had been decided prior to this pick, I may have tried to hold off until the third pick of the 15th. I believe in waiting until late to take a kicker, but I don't want to end up with the Jets' or the Saints' kicker either.

Getting Mike Hollis with the ninth pick of the 14th round is proof that you can get a quality starter late. Hollis scored 119 FanEx points last year to finish in eighth place. As the Jaguars offense heated up down the stretch, so did Hollis' scoring. He finished with 73 points the last half of the season, which was good for sixth place. Interestingly, he was only three points behind John Kasay, who was drafted in the eighth round and is tabbed by everybody as a "can't miss" prospect for 1997. His 83 percent was in the top third of all NFL kickers and even a point higher than Kasay.

I've always been a believer that you're drafting an offense as much as you're drafting a kicker. You want a good offense that will get your kicker in position to score.

The combination of the Jaguars' offense and Hollis' consistency makes him a solid starter.

Every year I draft an ESPN blurb or a magazine article or a wire report.

Last year, I drafted Robert Smith of the Vikings because I saw this report on ESPN where he had put on 20 pounds of muscle and was working out with other Ohio State alumni and was beating Joey Galloway in sprints, etc. Of course, Smith got hurt, again, midway through the season.

This year's sound bite is Rocket Ismail.

Every year a veteran player that has always been an underachiever threatens to rededicate himself. They'll show up for a week at the team's training center and then remember that he doesn't like to work hard.

Ismail has always had a reputation as a head case, even by Raiders' standards. Last year the Panthers traded for Rocket and paid a lot of money for 12 catches and 1 touchdown.

But Ismail has rededicated himself this year. And every report out of Carolina says that he has been the undisputed star of minicamps and the first few days of training camp. He's caught everything in sight and has made some incredible leaping, acrobatic catches.

It has never been a question about Rocket's talent. He is still one of the NFL's fastest men and scares the hell out of defensive backs that are assigned to cover him. If he really has put it together mentally, he plays on a good offense with enough talent at receiver to keep him from getting double covered and a quarterback with an arm big enough to take advantage of his speed.

Analysis