Dolf Fins

This was a hard decision for me at #9. I tried to trade down with any of the 3 owners left to draft in the first round, but did not get any takers. (FYI...The offered trade was swapping 1st and 2nd round picks, and swapping 4th and 5th round picks.)

I thought I could still get one of the Top 10 RBs by trading down (Bettis, Watters, or Murrell) and still have a good shot at one of the Top 3 WRs on my list (Pickens, Moore, or Rice). The trade was a "no-go", so I had to reevaluate the situation.

I considered drafting Pickens (the #1 WR on my board), because besides being a great player, he would help nullify the Jeff Blake pick of one of my division rivals (Greg Kellogg). Since no WR had yet been drafted, I felt I would still have a good chance to get a Top 5 WR with my 2nd round pick. I then decided that if I waited on a RB, it would be 6 picks before one came my way again. I figured that 3 of the 6 picks would be RBs. This would leave me with a #1 RB of someone like Morris or possibly Abdul-Jabbar, a little lower than what I was hoping for.

So the decision was to grab the best available RB. Ricky Watters is the best left on the board, but holdout possibilities scared me off. Move to the next best RB on my list, Jerome Bettis.

Bettis plays for the run oriented Steelers, sees a lot of carries, is the main goal line threat for his team and, with his new contract signed, no worries of a holdout.

I was desperately hoping to snag one of the Top 3 WRs (Pickens, Moore, or Rice) with this pick, but was foiled when all three of them went in succession just prior to my selection at 2.04.

This left me with another hard decision. I thought about drafting either a WR or another RB. (I felt a serviceable QB could still be grabbed in the 4th or 5th round.) In looking what was left on the draft board, I decided that the WR I could pick up 16 selections from now (my next pick) would be better than any RB I would pick up by that time. So the decision was made to go with a RB.

I selected Abdul-Jabbar over the other remaining RBs for several reasons. Karim had no experience last year but still put up 1100+ yards and 11 TDs. Jimmy Johnson is a big proponent of a strong running game, and will give Abdul-Jabbar his share of carries. In addition, Johnson and Miami did not even draft another RB even with all of the additional picks they had in this draft, which I take as a sign that they are satisfied with Abdul-Jabbar's performance and have confidence in his ability to be a main scoring threat/tough yardage getter. The Dolf Fins were happy to get another (in my opinion) Top 10 RB to round out their backfield and really put the pressure on some of the owners who have not filled this spot as of yet.

By the way, this is NOT a homer pick, I am not a Dolphins fan (my last name just happens to be Dolfi, hence my team name)."

Next up: a quality WR or possibly a QB.

I thought the 3rd round is where I would pick up my #1 WR. I was wrong.

All of the WRs I was really interested in to lead my receiving corps had already been snapped up. The QB field had thinned down to about the 10th best QB, so no rush to get a QB - maybe in another 2 rounds or so. My two starting RBs have already been picked. I tried to trade down with one of the two owners below me who had not yet secured their starting RB (O'Leary and Lenz), but no takers. This left me with one of two choices: get a decent WR or grab one of the Top 3 TEs left.

This part of the decision was easy. The drop-off in talent at the WR position is not too great between the #10 WR and the #20 WR (in my estimation about 15 points). But the drop-off after the first tier of TEs (Sharpe, Coates, Walls, and Chmura) is considerably larger (around 30 points or so). So I felt I had to get one of the top TEs while they were till available to me here rather than risk letting them fall to my next pick at 4.04.

Now the hard part, which one to take? Walls was taken earlier by Harris, and I'm not convinced that Chmura just picks up where Jackson left off last year. So it was down to Sharpe or Coates. Either way a no-lose situation at TE. Sharpe has no yet signed with Denver (although I'm sure he will), Coates recently received a contract extension - edge to Coates. Yardage - edge to Sharpe. Injuries - Coates seems to be the more durable of the two, edge to him. TDs - either one can lead all TEs - a push. Consistency - edge to Coates. (Coates had the following TD numbers over the last 4 years = 8,7,6,9 while Sharpe was more volatile = 9,4,4,10.) Toss in the fact that of the two I'd rather watch Ben Coates, and the decision is made.

Ben Coates becomes the first receiver taken by the Dolf Fins.

Next up: a WR (This time I'm serious! I promise!) :-)

I was definitely looking for a quality WR this round. I missed my pick at the 4.04 spot and took over the 4.11 spot as a penalty. If I would have picked at 4.04, I was looking for Michael Jackson (BAL). Unfortunately, Michael was snapped up by Terry Cannon at 4.06. Terry Glenn was picked up by Kellogg, but I was shying away from him with Ben Coates already on my team. I considered taking a chance on Robert Brooks, but Brooks went to McClory at 4.05. Jake Reed also went before my pick at 4.11, but I was looking for the #1 WR on a team rather than the #2 guy (although, if you are looking for a #2 WR - Jake Reed is an excellent one). Thus the decision to go with Jimmy Smith (JAX).

Jacksonville had a fairly potent passing attack led by Mark Brunell last season, with both Smith and Keenan McCardell putting up decent numbers (Smith 1244 yd,7TD - McCardell 1129yd,3TD). Although I would have liked to see more TDs from my #1 WR, Smith's yardage still goes far in a performance league like the FanEx. McCardell was the possession receiver last season while Smith was the deep threat. I expect numbers in the same range from Smith (1100 yds, 6-8 TDs) in 1997. The only drawback I considered at drafting Smith in this spot was the fact that his bye week matches with that of my #1 RB, Jerome Bettis. But I felt a season of production from Smith far outweighed the possibility of a poor Week 3 showing.

I was looking for another WR in this spot, and I couldn't believe my good fortune when Fryar fell to me here. I was looking for another quality WR, and hopefully someone's "go to" receiver. In Fryar, I got both. The #1 WR for the Eagles (who led the NFC in offense last year) is a great fit as my #2 WR. In addition, the Eagle's QB Detmer LOVES Fryar due to his grasp of the offense as well as his ability to run very good routes.

I'm not sure why so many seem to be down on Fryar this year. I know some people feel he is getting old and are expecting a drop-off in his numbers. But those same people seem to forget that the same thing was said the year before when Fryar came to the Eagles from the Dolphins. In his final season with Miami (and a still-passing Miami to boot), Fryar had 910 yds, 8 TDs. All of the doom sayers said now that he went to Philly's Ray Rhodes run West-Coast style offense he would certainly drop off. However, Fryar showed us all he still had some juice in the tank when he gained 1195 yds, and 11 TDs!

The only downside I see to this pick is that should Watters hold out, Fryar (and Detmer's passing) may suffer. But even that is not a certainty, if Staley and Garner can pick up the slack. And Fryar's situation could even be better if the Eagles can pick up a free agent speedster to stretch the field.

All in all, a solid pickup as my #2 WR. I expect numbers in the 850-950 yard range and 8-9 TDs from Fryar this season. And I also get to root for someone on my favorite team, the Eagles. A win-win if I ever heard one.

Trade Analysis:

I was approached with a trade offer by Terry Cannon (no surprise there), about trading away my 6.04 pick. The original offer proposed was my 6.04 and 9.09 for Terry's 7.02 and 8.10. Basically, Terry gets the guy he wants in the 6th round, and I get to double-up on picks in the 7th and 8th, but skip the 9th. Since I had no clear cut favorite out of the remaining players (and none that I felt I couldn't get equal value for in the 7.02 spot), I seriously considered the original trade offer.

After some thought, I felt that moving down 10 spots from 6.04 to 7.02 was not worth the increase from 9.09 to 8.10 (an 11 spot move) -- that would have been almost an even trade, EXCEPT that i would be giving up a 6th rounder (a sure starter) to get a better 8th rounder (a bench player, in all likelihood). I decided I needed more for a division foe to get the player he wanted, so I countered with my 6.04, 9.09, 11.09, and 12.04 for Terry's 7.02, 8.10, 10.07, and 12.07. Confused yet? Just stick with me a little longer.

Terry felt that was too high a price for the fellow he coveted, and countered with my 6.04, 9.09, and 12.04 for Terry's 7.02, 8.10, and 11.06. In addition, terry told me the player he was considering drafting with my pick, which was someone I was not really interested in. This counter offer was actually just the original trade with the added bonus of me getting the extra 11th rounder for my 12th rounder. This was enough to swing my decision.

The trade was made, and I'll just have to see if I was correct about getting a player of similar value with my additional 2 picks in the next two rounds.

This was a tough one. I wanted to go either WR or QB with this pick. I had 4 QB's of comparatively the same level on my draft sheet left, so WR was the choice (not to mention the fact that the FanEx rule of starting 3 WRs is starting to thin out the remaining WR ranks).

I considered O.J. McDuffie here, but the fact that I already have 2 starting players in the AFC-E and Dan Marino still available as a possible QB, coupled with OJ's recent groin injury, made me shy away from him.

I decided to take a chance on the newest member of the Dallas Cowboys, Anthony Miller. I know some people will second guess me for picking Miller here. He had a down year last season (and with Elway throwing to you that's not easy), and is moving to a new offense. However, out of the remaining WRs, I feel he has the best natural talent. In addition, I see him taking over the spot in the Dallas offense vacated by Alvin Harper (and not since filled). I also think Michael Irvin WILL play in Dallas this year, and this will also help keep Miller from any heavy coverage by opposing teams.

I'm not convinced Miller will put up numbers similar to Harper's of a few years ago, but as a #3 WR, I am more than happy to take a chance on a WR that I felt wouldn't last until my pick at 7.09 and has the potential of being a top 20 receiver.

O.K., O.K. let me have it. I just can't wait to hear all of the people who chastise me for not picking Dan Marino with this pick. But let me explain myself and maybe I can make my choice of Stan Humphries a little more understandable to you.

All 4 of the QBs that I had at approximately the same level of production were still on the board when my 7.09 pick came up. This made me seriously consider picking a WR here and waiting until my first of 2 picks in the 8th to grab my QB. However, the 3 teams after my pick also get the first 3 picks in the next round, giving them each 2 picks before my 8th rounder. With all of these teams closing in on completing their starting lineup (sans kicker, which we know can wait until later), I felt that the risk was too great in chancing these 4 QBs. Especially considering Team Lenz/Serra has Steve Young and may be pondering a QB pick here as insurance. So QB was my choice.

Now, to put some of your minds at ease, let me say that I DID have Dan Marino ranked higher than Humphries on my draft sheets. However, with 2 AFC-E players (Abdul-Jabbar and Coates) already in my starting lineup, I felt that having my starting QB off that same week would make winning in week 5 next to impossible. I still might have been able to get Humphries with my 8.04 pick (or one of the other 2 QBs I have in this range), if I had chosen Marino, but that was just too big a gamble.

As I contemplated taking Marino or Humphries with my 6.04 pick, I feel my trade down (with Terry Cannon, of course) to the seventh was a success. As to whether my pick of Humphries over Marino was the right one, only time will tell.

I feel that Humphries will produce similar numbers to Marino this year, and has more upside potential this year than in years past due to the influence of Kevin Gilbride and the addition of better talent on the other side of Tony Martin, namely Eric Metcalf.

After Marino lasted through the last three picks of round seven, I was holding my breath hoping he would fall to my 8.04 pick. Unfortunately, Team Lenz/Serra grabbed him to backup Young (as I thought they would). So I had to make a decision on what position to backup first on my team. I have already filled my QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and my TE. My kicker can wait until later, so the thought was to backup my RBs or WRs. I felt WR was the better choice here for a few reasons:   ~ 1. A WR backup is important in FanEx with 3 WRs out in various weeks,    ~ 2. With 2 of my starting WRs in the same division (NFC-E), a solid backup is necessary,    ~ 3. Terry Cannon is trading up in this round, and still needs 2 starting WRs, and    ~ 4. With the level of RBs left, I feel one of similar caliber can be had with my 8.10 pick.

I chose Jeff Graham (NYJ) to be my #1 backup WR. I felt Graham was one of the more solid receivers left on the ever dwindling draft board. Graham is playing opposite Keyshawn Johnson, which should keep him from getting heavy coverage. QB Neil O'Donnell is back in the lineup, and while he's no stud QB, he is definitely better than what Graham had slinging balls his way last season - Glenn Foley. He also had a poor coach in Rich Kotite, who besides being unable to inspire his players, also has no idea of how to use the talent he has. Some have said Parcells will grind out the ball in NY, but he is a smart enough coach to use all of his weapons. He certainly didn't stifle the Patriots passing game. In any case, Jeff Graham had 788 yards receiving on 50 catches (a 15.8 ypc avg.) and found the endzone 6 times - in spite of all of the obstacles thrown in his path. While I don't expect Graham to be a stud WR this year, I think his numbers will at least stay the same and has a good chance to actually improve some, making him a solid backup for my WR corp.

First off, let me thank Tom Walls for monitoring the draft for me while I was away, and assisting me in making this selection. Tom was not only a help in actually getting the pick in on time, but was also great for bouncing my ideas off of.

After getting my 1st backup player (a WR) at 8.04, the thought was to backup my RB or QB situation. I was the last to draft a QB, so this puts my QB (Humphries) at the bottom of the FanEx QB starters list. Since I had originally had 4 QBs who I felt would put up comparable numbers on my list at the time I drafted Humphries at 7.09, and there were still 2 left at this point (Detmer and Harbaugh), I decided I had to get one of these QBs to make sure I had a good shot of at least one one of my QBs being able to put up good numbers for the 1997 season. I was also fairly certain that with no picks in the 9th round (due to trades made prior to this round), I was unlikely to see either of these players in my next draft slot, 10.04. (No CB jokes, please.)

I chose Detmer over Harbaugh for a few reasons. Ty was not the starting QB last season, but gained the job after Rodney Peete's early season injury. Ty looked very solid in leading the Eagles to the top of the NFC offensive rankings. Ty is not a big prototypical QB, but he did seem to possess the intelligence to make smart passes, and watching Brett Favre for a few years can't do anything to harm your QB's performance. His comfort with Ray Rhode's version of the West Coast offense was evident from the beginning, and I feel that with his first year of real action under his belt Ty will be able to put up solid numbers again.

The drawback with the pick is that should Watters hold-out, Ty's performance will suffer. Ricky helped open up the Eagles offense with his rushing abilities, but his ability to catch the swing pass from Detmer really helped Ty be effective. Detmer is on the small side for a QB, which could be an injury concern, but he bounced back relatively well after several punishing hits last season. I also felt that with a healthy Marshall Faulk, the Colt's offense would rely less on Harbaugh and more on the ground game. And if Detmer happens to hook up with Irving Fryar (his favorite target last season) for a few of his TDs, who am I to argue? ;-)

The biggest need for my team at the 10.04 spot was to get a solid backup for my RBs. There were several RBs I considered at this spot. Anthony Johnson (not sure how much playing time he will get behind Tim B), James Stewart (Means looked really good at the end of '96), Edgar Bennett (Levens looks like the bigger scoring threat on GB though Bennett will still get some yardage). I even gave a small look at some of the RBs eve closer to the fringe, like LeShon Johnson & Leland McElroy (no clear starter, and Centers is sure to score most of the RB points in Arizona), Lamar Smith (I think Warren is going to bounce back from last year's drop in numbers, leaving Smith with little action), and even Craig Heyward (if Lawrence Phillips falters, Heyward could be the beneficiary - but weight problems may not let him be as effective as in days of old).

Instead, I settled on the grandfather of the remaining RBs - Marcus Allen. Before everyone says that Allen is washed-up after 16 seasons in the NFL, let me tell you why I thought he was a solid backup for my team at this pick in the draft.

The Chiefs have said that Greg Hill is their man this upcoming season. Does this mean Marcus is out in the cold? Well, the media has been saying Hill was going to be the man for the last three years, and it hasn't happened yet. Not that I don't think he'll be the starter this season - he will.

However, look for Schottenheimer to still look to Allen near the goal line when he needs that tough score. Hill should be the man between the 20s, and give way to Allen from there on in. Even if Allen is relegated to the same role as Hill has been playing for the previous 2 seasons, I would expect similar to better numbers for Allen at that same spot. If I had to make a guess at Allen's numbers when '97 is all said and done, I would play it conservative and say: 120 - 150 carries, around 650 yards, and about 4-6 scores. However, the upside with Allen is that if KC does indeed put Marcus in at the goal line, his TD numbers could be even higher (7-9 range).

The ranks are really starting to thin out now, and with two of my possible starting WRs out on the same week - and FanEx requiring 3 WRs to start each week, I felt a WR was the best choice here. (Not to mention that Kellogg's Atlanta Angst, who pick 2 spots after me, do not have a backup WR yet.)

I chose WR Shawn Jefferson (NE) for a couple reasons. The Patriots offense is still one of the better offenses in the AFC, and with Bledsoe as the QB, Jefferson should see some tosses come his way. Curtis Martin keeps opposing defenses from keying on the pass, and Terry Glenn should attract most of the D-backs' attention, leaving Jefferson as the beneficiary. The main reason however, was Jefferson's steady performance over the past two seasons (if two seasons worth of data is enough to determine steady), with 621 yards receiving two seasons ago and 771 last season. 3 TDs in 1995 (although one was rushing) and 4 TDs in 1996. Jefferson goes as Bledsoe goes, and since most are expecting good things from Drew - it would be reasonable to expect good things from Jefferson as well.

An average season for Jefferson should get me 700 yards and 3-4 TDs, but I think a season of 800 yards and 5 TDs is not out of Jefferson's reach, and for a #5 WR, those are good numbers.

I still need a kicker, but my philosophy of "Kickers Can Wait" (not to be confused with the Warren Beatty football movie "Heaven Can Wait") has served me well before, and so I bypass the likes of Boniol and Pelfrey for another backup RB. Waiting until the 13th to get my kicker may be a mistake, but I'll reserve final judgment on that until I see who I end up with as my starter.

Anthony Johnson is a steal for me late in the 11th round. I have 2 QBs, 5 WRs, my starting TE, and 3 other RBs on my team so far. Johnson gives the Dolf Fins depth at RB, and a possible starter if Biakabutuka goes down to injury again.

I know many people out there are saying that Biak will be the featured back and Johnson will be of little value this season. I disagree. Johnson had 1120 yards rushing and 6 TDs to go along with them. I just don't see Carolina having this guy ride the bench. He proved he can rush for a thousand yards and could fill in nicely as the starter. I think it more likely that Biak will be the feature back and Johnson will still get a share of the carries. This doesn't make him a fantasy starter, but the as-yet-untested Biakabutuka may falter, and if he does, look for Johnson to take over the top spot again. This makes Johnson a good pick for a 4th RB - one with the potential to be a starter if things work out right, but still somewhat productive even if they don't.

First off, Chris Dolfi is not writing this analysis. Chris was married this past Saturday to the girl of his dreams. (She won't kill him when he spends every Sunday in front of the TV watching his fantasy players rack up big points.) I am Tom Walls and I'll be filling in for Dolf while he's on his honeymoon. Congrats, Chris.I will try to keep the feel of Dolf's analysis by mis-spelling many words and swearing often. :)

Now, it's the thirteenth round and the Fins don't have a kicker yet. This is a strategy that I whole heartedly endorse, for the most part kickers can be a big gamble. I feel it is best to get the better back ups at the 'skill' positions and hold off on even your starting kicker. Now, that being said, I feel pretty happy that Boniol fell this far with the number of kickers being taken.

Sure, he's moving from the mostly enclosed home of the Cowboys to the windier, colder nest of the Eagles, but the Eagles have a deadly offense. They scored a lot of points last year. Gary Anderson, who has a much weaker leg now, ended up tenth last year among kickers in scoring. Boniol may not have a great track record with long kicks, he hasn't had that many chances, he was 5 of 7 last year from 40-49 yards. But I think Ray Rhodes will have enough confidence in Boniol to give him chances Anderson did not have last year.

The Eagles gave Boniol a big raise in pay from his Dallas days, and Boniol will earn it. He will probably end up with around 120 points this season, and end up a top five kicker. (by Tom Wall)

Todd Peterson has the potential to be a top ten kicker this year. The Seahawks, I think, will make the playoffs for the AFC as a wildcard. They are a team on the upswing, and this will benefit Peterson. Especially with Friesz as QB all year. I saw a stat in a magazine that wrote Peterson's average with Mirer at QB was 5.9 points per game. This stat rose to 8.7, when Friesz was running the offense, you do the math.... It adds up to a solid producer. That's a good bunch of points. The Fins now have two solid kickers, either one should be a starter in this league, or your league. (by Tom Wall)

I'm back from my honeymoon rested and relaxed, but with the start of NFL preseason I'm getting wound up again. A special thanks to Tom Walls for making my last two picks for me while I was away, and to my new wife (Patti) who lets me scream obscenities at the TV every time one of my players fumbles the ball at the goalline.

I had hoped to see at least one Top 10 kicker on my roster when I returned, but with Boniol and Peterson, I'm VERY solid at Kicker. For my next pick, I could have gone with a backup TE (which I still need) or take a chance on a player at another position. I rolled the dice and took Chris Darkins.

Chris WHO ?? O.K., I admit it. I didn't know much about the guy either. He was a RB out of Minnesota that landed on the Packers, and that was about the extent of my knowledge. But I wasn't using a lot of hard statistical info in my pick of this guy. I drafted this 6'1" 215lb. RB for one reason and one reason alone: the season-ending injury to Edgar Bennett.

Bennett went down in the Packers preseason game with Miami, suffering from a torn Achille's tendon. And with Bennett out for the season, Darkins has a real chance at making some fantasy impact this year. Let's face it, Dorsey Leven's stock goes even higher with Bennett's injury, but he can't do it all by himself. Dorsey Levens has never been a 25 carries a game kind of guy, and I don't think Green Bay will turn him into one. Look for Darkins to share some of the "between the 20's" duty and give way to Levens at the goalline.

Will Darkins be a fantasy stud? No. Will Darkins be a starter on the Dolf Fins? Probably not. However, a RB who will see some playing time for the defending NFL champions and is still available in the 15th round is a rarity.

So the Dolf Fins take Darkins, and hope for good things from a #5 RB. Remember gang, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

With my final draft pick of the 1997 FanEx Draft, I was faced with one last decision. My starting roster had been filled out long ago. My backups were complete at almost all of my positions - with 2 exceptions. I still required a backup TE for Ben Coates' bye week, and I felt my QB situation was a little shaky as well.

I opted to pass on the backup TE for a few reasons. At this point in the draft there are no real standout TEs. However, I have heard good things out of KC about Ted Popson. Popson looked good filling in for the 49ers last season, and being reunited with one of his QB's in KC (Grbac) can only help to make him feel even more comfortable. Gonzales just recently signed, so he is behind Popson right now in terms of knowing the offense, etc. But I passed on Popson because of my starting TE, Ben Coates. Coates has been such a workhorse over the past few years, I just can't see me starting my backup TE for more than the NE bye week. In addition, Coates has been durable as well, so risk of injury to my big TE is less than to one of my QBs. With the rash of QB injuries over the past few years, I decided that I could pickup my backup TE in the Free Agent market, and went for a QB with this last pick.

I have heard rumors that Rodney Peete could start over one of my QBs, Ty Detmer. I don't believe it for a second. I have had Eagles season tickets for a few years now and got a chance to see both of them in action. Detmer is just plain better at running Ray Rhodes offense than Peete. In addition, with Detmer up for contract renewal at the end of this season, he should be playing hard to show the Eagles why they should resign him. Peete isn't even guaranteed the #2 spot over Bobby Hoying (although I think he will be there if for no other reason than his experience). So a backup for Detmer seemed less likely to play than a backup for Stan Humphries.

Jim Everett has been in the league for 12 long years. Although I don't expect him to set the world on fire, he will be playing backup on an offense that should be much more effective than the Saints offense was in 1996. Humphries has been known to play through pain, but unfortunately he seems to end up IN pain more often than not. Everett provides the Chargers with a smart veteran QB still in good physical shape that can step up in case of injury to Stan and run the offense. Everett is probably a good enough QB to actually start for a few of the NFL teams out there (the Giants come to mind among others), and should provide little drop-off at my QB spot should Humphries get knocked out for any significant time.

Hopefully, Everett will never have to take the field for the Dolf Fins in 1997. But if he does, I feel he will out perform many of the lower tier QBs remaining in this draft.