Clones

Traded to Petros/Cannon
Unlike most years, I do not feel there is a strong, clear cut number two overall pick in this year's draft. You could make a number of arguments for 4-5 separate players saying why they should go number two this year. Being that I didn't have my heart set on any player I felt it was in my best interested to move down and help myself in other areas.

TC is very aggressive in the sense that he is not a passive drafter. You could say he's the Carmen Policy of the league. If there is a player he wants - he moves up to get him. Clearly TC is targeting someone early once again. Last year it was Rickey Watters. At the time of the trade TC took some criticism but after Watters' brilliant season it was TC who had the last laugh. Our current deal guarantees he will get his man once again this year.

So this is a deal that helps both TC and I. I get to move down in the first and I am able to pick up a extra 2nd round pick as well as move from a 7th round pick to the 5th round.

Negatives of the deal: While this deal has intentions to help both TC and I it could end up only helping one of us much like TC's deal last season with another FanEx owner. So I could very easily end up on the short end of the stick.

This move could also backfire if Brett Favre were to unexpectedly not go number one. If Favre was to drop to number two I think I would have to call a travel agent to book me a one way flight on a comet.

This was the player I was banking on taking all along. When I made my trade with Terry Cannon I knew that Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis, and Barry Sanders would all be off the board when I picked because this league loves running backs.

While his stats from last season do not compare with Martin, Smith, and Davis I felt that he was on the rise and that they will compare this year.

My reasoning for projected improvement goes as follows: George had an impressive 1368 yards rushing mark as a rookie last season. But that total came even though he got off to a slow start. Having a full season under his belt I expect him to start out of the gates quicker, this increase his already high yardage total from a year ago.

The touchdown factor is the major key. George scored just eight last season but he will increase that total significantly in '97. Last year's offensive coordinator Jerry Rhome was fired and Les Steckel was added. This is a major factor because Rhome did not build the offense around George and tried to get cute with the passing game. Steckel knows what he has in George and will build this year's offense around George. More carries means more scoring chances. And that all equates to more touchdowns.

My only other option at this pick in my mind was Ricky Watters. It was imperative for me to select a running back with this pick. There is already a tremendous run on running backs and there will continue to be. And that only means an excellent wide receiver will slip to my next pick (19th). So when it came down to Watters and George I went with George because of the cloudy situation with Watters in Philadelphia. Normally I would not allow that to affect my thinking because I believe Watters will be starting in the Eagles backfield on August 31st in New York against the Giants, but it acted as a tie-breaker in this scenario when it came down to two talents so evenly matched when it came to my projections for '97.

To summarize why I made this pick: It is because in George I saw a player who had great success last year but still had a lot of room to improve.

Traded I traded Greg Kellogg both of my second round picks along with my fourth rounder. In return I get his second round pick, his third round pick, and his fourth round pick.

TRADE ANALYSIS:

Let me preface this by saying I realize I did indeed give up a lot and I am well aware that I will be subjected to MUCH public scrunity.

That being said. I don't care. I wanted Mark Brunell on my team. He was at the top of my wish list for the second round but at the time I considered him an unrealistic possibility for the second round. But as the draft progressed he slipped closer and closer.

I dropped approximately. ten spots from my final second round pick to my new position in the third only to move up one. If Scott McClory had no intention of drafting Brunell, I will look like a major fool. But hindsight is only 20/20 and I had no idea whether or not Scott wanted Brunell or not.

I knew this deal was a risk and I had to decide whether or not it is a risk I wanted to take. I thought because of the run on running backs possibly a first tier receiver might drop down. But when Moore, Pickens, and Rice went consecutively that ended that possibility.

If I wasn't going to take Brunell I was going to take another running back because I felt any of the receivers on the board would be a reach where I was picking. The names I considered had potential but all had question marks. I learned my lesson with Natrone Means last year - do not make picks early that have sizable question marks surrounding them. You can't get away with an early bust in most leagues - but not in the FanEx.

While the names I was considering had questions surrounding them Brunell had none in my mind. I believe that a key to success in fantasy football is being aggressive. If there is someone out there you believe can help you win, you do not take a passive approach, you go out and do what you got to do to get him. Even if it means some time over paying.

I know I will take my lumps now but I believe when the season is all said and done this move will come out looking good after Brunell has a monster year. I'd rather go home with a player I wanted then be in a position where I had to draft a player I really didn't want.

PICK ANALYSIS:

I have read a lot of skepticism about Mark Brunell out there. I am one of the biggest Mark Brunell fans you will find. So if you are one of the people out there asking, "Why are people so hyped on Mark Brunell?" then let me attempt to answer.

I had Brunell rated as my number two overall quarterback heading into this draft. He has the bonus rushing ability of Steve Young but comes without the concussion concerns and the threat of an early retirement. He has the long arm capability of Brett Favre and the ability to pick up extra points on long touchdown bombs.

Brunell made major strides towards the end of year leading the Jaguars in part to the AFC Championship game. There were some concerns about Brunell's decision making and his tendency to throw interceptions but during the final four games of the regular season Brunell did not throw one interception. This showed me that he had made major strides and was ready to take it to the next level.

Brunell also plays with an underrated pair of receivers. Keenan McCardell is not much of a scoring threat but he proved to be an excellent and dependable possession style receiver underneath for the Jags. And Jimmy Smith developed into a top notch threat downfield.

I also liked the fact that Brunell isn't on a team with a dominant defense. Having a QB on a team that has a tendency to give up a lot of points and put the offense in a position to throw doesn't hurt.

While Brunell and the Jags are talking about a long-term extension, nothing has been signed yet so there is a chance Brunell will be heading into this season in a contract year. Having a player with a little incentive to go the extra mile also does not hurt.

After reading Mark Nulty's commentary about his selection of Natrone Means, I realize I had to do something similar.

Mark isn't crazy about Means and I am in the same boat as I am not crazy about Morris. But I am blood thirsty for running backs and if I didn't grab Morris here, I would not have seen him in the fourth round. Looking at my rankings and looking past Morris I really got a queezy feeling with the notion of possibly having to have to count on the players below him as a full-time starter.

I believe the Morris pick will pan out. He will not be spectacular but he will make a good second starter at running back as long as he doesn't attempt to emulate a Cheech and Chong movie anytime soon.

I hear a lot of hype surrounding Jay Graham in Baltimore but I have heard his performance at the team's recent mini-camp was greatly exaggerated as a way to get Morris to report to training camp in better shape. Graham will replace Earnest Byner and see time on third downs but Morris will handle the bulk of the carries and get those goalline scores.

I am expecting a 7-8 touchdown from Morris this year and between 800-900 yards rushing. Some say that may be crazy considering how poor the Baltimore defense was last year forcing the Ravens to throw like crazy on offense. But Baltimore has sigificantly upgraded on defense and will give up no where near as many points as last season which means the team will not be behind as much. That in turn means less passing which equates to enough carries and scoring chances for Morris to have a productive season.

With that in mind I decided to grab Morris and fill out the backfield and worry about receiver later.

Having selected a quarterback and two running backs with my first three picks, I thought it was high time I picked a receiver, wouldn't you say?

Originally after my Bam Morris pick I had tabbed Joey Galloway as the top guy on my wish list for round four. But I pretty much knew at the time that it was wishful thinking. My realistic goal was Terry Glenn and I was delighted that he was available with my pick.

Glenn is someone I feel who, even though that I took in the fourth round, will emerge as a second round caliber talent by season's end. Glenn last season set a record for receptions from a rookie wide receiver with 90. Like Eddie George, Glenn was an exceptional performance player already last season as a rookie. But also like George, he wasn't much of a basic scorer only accumulating six touchdowns.

A little known fact about Glenn is that he played the entire season with a tender hamstring. That is a big reason why he was not able to go the distance on some plays for scores. I was encouraged by the fact that he stayed in the lineup even though he was injured (Vincent Brisby could learn a lot from his teammate) and felt that with a 100% Glenn, he easily should be able to get his scoring up as well as potentially get 100 receptions since Ben Coates is always drawing a crowd (not to mention Bledsoe now has confidence in him and will be looking to him more in the early season than last season).

I have specifically tapped players like George, Brunell, and Glenn for a reason. They all are young players who had a considerable amount of success last year. But the similar trend among all three is that they all have the room to improve and have even better seasons this year. You cannot say that about players like Bettis, T. Allen, and T. Martin. I tend to stay away from player early who had career years because that means the only place for them to go is down. George, Brunell, and Glenn can only go up.

What am I going to do with my next pick? Many are speculating that it will be a wide receiver. And it just might. But let's just say I am not ruling running back out either.

This is a player I did not like before the draft but began to like after he landed with the Saints and it became apparent he was handpicked by Ditka and that he would be the primary ball carrier for the Saints in '97. So I do like him.

That being said, I do not like him as much as others. Looking at the rosters of some other teams in the league I surmised that they would be looking for a running back. At this point of the draft, there is little left. I also know a few owners in the league who are not too weak at running back but also have their eye on Davis.

Now some of you are saying, "Why would someone be dumb enough to take a running back when they need a receiver?" I don't think this is a dumb move and that is because any of the receivers I would want to take here would be a certain reach. Instead of reaching for a wide receiver or wasting this pick, I figured that instead of need I should focus on value. Round five is too early for Davis in most leagues, but this is the FanEx and we are all blood thirsty for running backs.

So this pick puts me into a stronger position than I would have been in had I reached for a receiver, tight end, or a backup quarterback. The move gives me three options:

1) Keep Davis as my second running back and trade Bam Morris to a team who have holes at running back.
2) Take Davis for the sake of trading him later, possibly for a wide receiver that I wanted who wasn't on the board when it came time for my pick. I can trade Davis now or wait until a team suffers an injury at running back during the season.
3) If I have overestimated Davis' value in this league - no sweat, I can keep him as a great bye week starter for when Houston and Baltimore are off. And he makes great insurance in case one of my backs get injured or in case Morris falters big time.

So I am content with keeping Davis but all the other owners in the FanEx should know I am willing to listen to offers.

There are so many talented young wide receivers out there and Kennison is at the top of the list. I considered him with my last two picks but felt it was too early. I am probably the only one considering Kennison this high but I expect big things from him and I did not feel he would be available when I pick again in the sixth round.

Kennison scored eleven touchdowns last season and I do not think he can match that total. But I will be happy with 1000+ receiving yards and 7-8 touchdowns just the same. I do not believe Isaac Bruce is going to have a better season than Kennison as Bruce constantly is drawing double teams which allows Kennison to be his man in single coverage downfield.

It is impossible for me to be overly strong at wide receiver, having drafted two running backs and a quarterback in the first three rounds, but I am quite satisfied with Glenn and Kennison and believe they will be good enough to complement my other players.

I was hoping (more like praying) that Johnnie Morton or Muhsin Muhammad would drift to this pick. Needless to say, that didn't happen so I had to take who I felt was the next best receiver, and Willie Green was in on the top of my list.

There has been speculation as to whether Rod Smith or Green will be the go-to receiver. My prediction is that neither will and that Elway will get both involved equally. So Green will not have a huge season but I expect production becoming of a third fantasy receiver.

It is sort of obvious that I need depth at wide receiver and Jones was the top guy on my board. I do not expect huge numbers from him because Irving Fryar is Detmer's go-to target but I look for improvements in Jones route running that will cause Detmer to look to him more.

Any higher and Jones would be a reach because he is not the number one target of his quarterback. But at this point, I think he is a good pick because he isn't going to be available much longer than this if I hadn't selected him here.

I considered taking Andre Rison with this pick because it looks like he will sign a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday. I decided to ignore temptation and NOT take him. The reasoning behind it, even though I need help at receiver, is because Rison is just a name. His days as a top-notch fantasy producer are over.

The two people who benefit the most from the Rison signing are Perriman and Grbac. Rison was nothing more than a decoy with Green Bay last season and he will do the same in KC. With Rison attracting a lot of coverage that should open things up for Perriman.

Frankly, I don't see Rison making an impact statistically. He is a "street" (meaning he gets by more on skill rather than technique) player who doesn't run disciplined routes - a MUST in the West Coast offense. Marty Schottenheimer is also one of the most demanding coaches in this league and the marriage of he and Rison is one that will not last long.

But the guy who benefits the most is Grbac. Just a few weeks ago, Grbac was on my list of busts. With the recent addition of Brett Perriman, and the imminent addition of Andre Rison - I had no choice but to take him off. My biggest knock against Grbac was that he simply would have the targets. With Tony Gonzalez, Perriman, and Rison being added suddenly he is working with a talented crew.

The fact that Grbac slipped this far shows that I wasn't the only one not high on him. But I believe recent acquisitions has made Grbac's stock grow in the minds of a few other fantasy owners as well, which is something I like. Backup quarterback isn't something I really needed at this point but the receivers on the board would have been reaches at this point. I decided to select a player based on value. I really wanted a receiver but it didn't make sense to take one at this juncture.

My hope is that an owner or two in this league are ready to jump on the Grbac bandwagon and would be interested in a deal. If a team is weak at quarterback he would be an instant upgrade to a few teams in this league.

And we all know that injuries happen. If nobody wants to part with much for Grbac, I will be more than happy to have him on my bench as insurance to Brunell and he will make an excellent bye week starter. But my primary goal with this pick is to move Grbac at an opportune time and land a quality wide receiver. If someone is interested, now is the time to contact me because once injuries occur, the price goes up.

TRADE ANALYSIS:
I overpaid for this pick but if you want something, you got to give up something. At this point overpaying wasn't a concern of mine. I have fulfilled my major needs and I would have used those two picks on a tight end and a kicker. But my first and second tier tight ends are gone and the 10th or 11th round pick would be too early to take a third tier tight end considering I have so many listed in my third tier. As for kickers, only two have been selected through 9 1/2 rounds so it is a safe bet that some of the names I would consider with the 10 or 11th round pick will be available a round or two beyond that.

I determined my only major need was wide receiver. Looking at the board Rison was the only potential impact type player I felt was still available.

I could wait and end up with someone with a lot of questions marks or trade up for someone I felt could be a factor this season. Adding another receiver to the mix was very important. I was besieged by injuries last year and depth was a major concern. I felt I was in a position to sacrifice picks to improve my depth at receiver.

Looking ahead now I feel as though all my remaining needs can be accomplished in the later rounds. I have basically filled out my receiver rotation, I have a good third running back, and a superb backup quarterback. With my remaining picks the only areas that need to be addressed are minor ones such as tight end, place kicker, fourth running back, and a sixth wide receiver. PICK ANALYSIS:
I almost took Rison a few picks ago and it may seem strange that I moved up to take a player I just bad mouthed. I will be the first to admit that Rison will NEVER return to his glory days but I needed depth at wide receiver and with a full-year of being on the field for one team he should be able to get me 5-6 touchdowns and 800 yards receiving which is all I can ask from a receiver selected in the middle of the ninth round.

Hoard has been a perennial stiff the past few seasons. So why take him? Because he is going to be backing up one of the least durable players in all of the NFL in Robert Smith. If take a look at the backups and weigh the percentages of who has the highest probability of seeing time, Hoard would have to be at the top of the list.

I also like Hoard because he has value even if Smith miraculously stays healthy. Because even if Smith stays on the field, it will be Hoard who gets the action inside the ten. Would I want a goalline back as my starter? No, but if I can get 300 yards and 3-4 touchdowns out of him, he'll make a nice fourth running back.

I made up my mind before the draft even begun that I was going to wait to grab a sleeper tight end. I had a list of four names. Two were still available but I bypassed them because I simply did not believe Bjornson would be available this late.

Many owners around the country believe the drafting of David LaFluer hurt Bjornson's fantasy value. It only helped. Bjornson has shown he cannot remain healthy for an entire season. LaFluer was drafted primarily so Bjornson could be removed in blocking situations. Sure, Bjornson will see less plays this season, but it benefits him because it reduces the risk of injury allowing increasing his chances of playing a full season and the plays he will miss our blocking situations. He wasn't going to do much during those plays anyway.

The bottom line is even with the presence of LaFluer, Bjornson will still be utilized as a receiver which is all that counts in fantasy football since you don't get points for blocking.

Don't write those Terry Kirby obits yet. Bottom line is whether or not Hearst starts, Kirby will still see a sizable amount of playing time. Steve Young called Hearst the "...key to the offense." Well he made similar comments about Johnny Johnson last year.

The offense is the West Coast offense. Meaning you need running backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield. Hearst doesn't do that. Kirby does and does it better than most running backs in the game today. He is also bigger than Hearst making him a more viable goalline option not to mention he will be used heavily when the 'Niners play teams that blitz a lot (i.e. Carolina). When you play teams that blitz a lot you often need your tailback to stay back and pick it up. This is especially essential for the 'Niners considering Young's track record for injury.

So basically it is the 14th round here, I need a fifth running back, and Kirby is still going to get playing time so if the shoe fits, wear it. Would I want Kirby as my third or fourth running back in the 11th or 12th round? Certinaly not. But he's being drafted in a proper context with this pick.

I was going to take a certain player here who has been steady and is much more projectable than Moore. Then I remembered, hey, the late rounds are about taking risks - not playing it safe.

So I decided to roll the dice and go with Moore. Leeland McElroy is currently the starter in Arizona but Insider correspondent Ray Auerbach has been feeding me with insight about how impressive Moore has looked. He's more durable than McElroy and much more stronger than Leshon Johnson. Moore could very win the starting job.

Ray also did tell me that McElroy is Tobin's boy but the name of the game is winning. If Moore can help the dismal Cardinal offense, he will be used. And the worse case scenario in the event that Moore doesn't start, he will at the very least see goalline carries in the place of the smurfish McElroy.

Yes, I have pressing needs at WR and PK but there are plenty available now and there will be plenty available when I pick again in the 16th. They will slip, but I wasn't sure Moore would with some of the sharks in this league.

It's hard to believe I took this guy in round seven last year. He was a total flop. But this year is different. He is coming off a down season, but I am using a round 16 pick on him this time a round so even if he's a dud, I can easily remove him. He isn't in a strong offense but kickers' production from year-to-year swing like a pendulum - perhaps Andersen is going to swing back.

Analysis