Thunderbolts

Far be it from me to pull the draft's first surprise as high as the #4 pick. You want surprises?... Check back with me in the fifth round on...

Curtis Martin was the #3 player on my board, and I figured there was a 50/50 chance I could land him with the fourth pick (depending on whether Emmitt had been taken yet). Based on last year's draft and our scoring system, running backs are at a great premium in this league. I don't draft again until 2.21 and will be very very surprised if one of my top 12 RBs is still on the board then.

Terrell Davis merited some consideration here. Even though he out-rushed Martin by 270+ yards last year, that was then - this is now. The addition of Zefros Moss at RT for Max Lane on the offensive line is going to be a big plus for New England, and having Sam Gash back can only improve on Martin's numbers. A 1500 yard season with 15 TDs is not out of the question.

After much consternation, I decided to take Bledsoe over opting for another running back, even though I am surprised (I said I would be) that some decent RB's haven't been selected yet. A couple of guys have opted for QB/WR combinations with their first two picks and don't have a running back yet.

On the board, there are still 3 RB's and 3 WR's that I like fairly evenly, and unless those are the next six selections, I will get one of them with pick 3.04. I felt that if I passed on Bledsoe to take one of them, he would be gone by then.

While Bledsoe certainly has the potential to step into the top tier of NFL fantasy quarterbacks, I had to weigh two factors into my decision. The first is that I drafted Curtis Martin in the first round, and there are only going to be so many TD's to around in New England. Usually I merely draft the best player without regard to the rest of my roster, so I ignored this. Besides, with the like of the Jets (twice), Colts (twice), Chargers, Jaguars, and Bucs, the Patriots schedule isn't exactly replete with defensive juggernauts.

The second is that there is a new coach with a new system, which may take some adjustment time. I am hoping that this time is minimal, and that Bledsoe proves to be one of the NFL's finest passers in 1997.

The "much consternation" I mentioned in my round 2 analysis was a decision I was making between Bledsoe, Adrian Murrell and Cris Carter. As Terry Cannon mentioned, most folks would consider Murrell to be in the third tier of RB's. I agree with Terry that Murrell is going to be an impact player this year, but because not many share my opinion, I thought he would be the most likely to drop into this spot.

Having said that, I thought there was no way on God's green earth that Carter would still be here. I am deliriously happy with this selection, as I have him rated as my fifth highest receiver (ahead of Isaac Bruce, Tony Martin, and Antonio Freeman -- all of whom have been drafted already). Add to that the fact that I see a rather severe drop in the quality of receivers that will be available with my fourth round choice, and for me, this pick was really a no-brainer.

Somebody tell Buddy Ryan that this guy does more than "just catch touchdowns". With Jake Reed coming into his own last year, much of the double coverage that Carter had experienced previously was gone. Carter caught 96 balls for 1163 yards and 10 TDs. And with QB Brad Johnson unquestionably "the man" in Minnesota this year, I am expecting that Carter's numbers could even increase as Johnson becomes more and more comfortable running the show. At worst, they should remain constant, which provides more production than I have a right to expect from a third round draft choice.

Are you kidding me? One of my top ten receivers available at the end of the fourth round? Pinch me, I'm dreaming!

OK, I'm exaggerating a bit here, but it's obvious that Michael Irvin's off-field exploits have negatively affected his value with the FanEx owners. Of course, there is the famous "If I see you in my courtroom again, you'll be going to jail for a long long time" edict from Judge Manny in Dallas. However, Irvin has stayed clean for the first year, and it seems to me that the longer he goes without relapsing, the easier it will be.

Another factor in his being available here may also be the fact that Irvin recently went public with a desire to be traded from the Cowboys saying that there is "too much scrutiny" in Dallas. (Isn't it funny how we never heard that there was too much scrutiny when the Cowboys were favored to win Super Bowl after Super Bowl?) Irvin won't be traded, if for no other reason than such a trade will cost the Cowboys more than $2M in salary cap money, and Jerry Jones' maneuvering in the early 90's has left him in quite the tight spot for the next several years.

I may receive too much scrutiny for not drafting a second running back in this position, however keep in mind that in FanEx, we start three WR's. Under this system, it was more important for me to pick up another #1 receiver who will produce high numbers than it was to have to roll the dice and choose one of the iffy RB's remaining. Whether I go RB or WR in the fifth round depends greatly on the next six selections. There is still enough quality on the board that I may have to wait until round six to pull a surprise pick.

Last reason for grabbing Irvin here goes back to one of the basic tenets of my draft strategy. Always get the guy who will produce the highest point total relative to the other players at his position. At this pick, Michael Irvin was unquestionably that player.

Although he scored only twice last year, he still caught 64 balls for almost 1000 yards, and that was after sitting out the first six games of the season due to his suspension. Remember when drafting, always look ahead to the upcoming year, and don't merely rely on last year's numbers. Just as Mark Nulty expects Emmitt Smith to rebound from his "sub-par" season of 1996, I expect Irvin to do the same. 8-10 TDs and 1200 yards is my conservative projection of his 1997 numbers.

This is my first selection that I sweated a bit waiting for my turn. It's not typical for me to target a particular player before my pick comes up, but Thurman was a guy I've had my eye on since I selected Irvin.

My reasons for wanting Thomas were two-fold. I already had two #1 receivers, and although there are a couple left on the board (Conway, Mathis, Willie Green) I'm not certain that they are going to be significantly better than many teams' #2 guy (Kennison, Owens, Morton).

The other (and more important reason) for selecting Thomas here is that he is the last RB left who undoubtedly is the feature back in his offense this year. Without taking Thomas, I'm stuck with half of Harris/Salaam, Levens/Bennett, Smith/Hoard, Biakabatuka/Johnson, Hill/Allen, etc. Perhaps by August I'll have a better idea of which of each of these halves is the better choice, but in May, I'll go for the sure thing.

One fairly significant drawback to Thurman Thomas as a Thunderbolt is the fact that my QB and my top 2 RBs share the same bye week. At this juncture, it would appear that without a great deal of luck, week 5 will be a wash for me. In a group as talented as FanEx where every week can be crucial, that may come back to haunt me.

Those who disagree with this selection will point to Thurman's age in addition to Buffalo's first round selection of Antowain Smith. It only SEEMS that Thomas has been around forever. In fact, he has just turned 31, and isn't ready to retire just yet. And while I believe that Smith is going to be a major star in the NFL, I do not believe that it will be in 1997.

Last year, my Thurmanator scored eight times while going over 1000 yards rushing. Taking his 10 year career into consideration, and with the Bills' dismantling of the Red Gun and a move to a more conventional offense, I expect these numbers to increase slightly and at worst to remain static.

My round six pick of Terrance Mathis is a classic case of sitting back and waiting to see who fell to my turn. So far in this draft, I have let the other FanExers fight over the sleepers and the reaches, while I stood back and gobbled up the talent that fell (too far in some cases) as a result. In my opinion, this strategy has worked well so far, as I now think I am quite solid at all six of the main starting positions. Of course, injuries are unavoidable over the course of the season, making depth a very important commodity. After what may likely be a surprising selection next round, I will settle into drafting for depth.

At the beginning of this round, I saw several possibilities for this pick. Most intriguing, although RB is not a position of need for me, would have been Robert Smith. Although he has been injury prone, he is every bit as good as (if not better than) Thurman Thomas. There has always been justifiable concern about his durability though, and a decision would have had to be made had he been available. Since the good Doctor destroyed the possibility of Smith to the T-bolts three selections earlier, I had to decide whether to reach for the first kicker (Hey guys -- that's a hint for round 7!) or play it safe and fill my third receiver slot with Chris Sanders, Terrell Owens, or Mathis.

I wouldn't have been disappointed to get Sanders, but as you can see in my Thurmanalysis of round 5, Mathis was a player high on my wide receiver list. Mathis narrowly edged out Owens of the 49ers in this spot based on two factors. While it is very probable that Owens will replace JJ Stokes as the #2 man in San Francisco, this is not yet a sure thing. Secondly, all else being equal, I prefer to have a team's #1 receiver over a #2. Notice I said "all else being equal". I would never choose Thomas Lewis over Jake Reed, but I thought Mathis and Owens were very close.

In my opinion, Mathis gets downgraded over previous years because of new Falcon's head coach Dan Reeves' perceived reputation as being a passing game killer. While it's true that the Giants had a very poor passing game with Reeves at the helm, they also had Dave Brown throwing to the likes of Lewis and Chris Calloway. Remember though, that while Reeves was in Denver, Anthony Miller made the Pro-Bowl on five separate occasions. Will Mathis make the Pro-Bowl? Probably not. Is Mathis a value as my third receiver, and as a sixth round selection? Absolutely. Mathis caught 69 balls for 771 yards and 7 TD's last year, and I would be happy to see him repeat those numbers with Chris Chandler behind center.

Yeah, yeah, I know... I was supposed to take the first kicker in this spot. As they say, the best laid plans of mice and men... I'll admit it, Michael Irvin's latest tantrum has me a bit spooked. While I am still certain that he won't be traded, I cannot be so sure that he won't retire. I'll admit when I first heard the story, I was skeptical. Then I read his comments, and started to believe that maybe he can indeed walk away. Irvin stated, "Everyone knows I'm not the most talented player out there. My game is based on emotion and attitude, and right now, I don't have either." Let me throw this out though. If Irvin does "retire", I fully expect him to un-retire at some point in the future as a Miami Dolphin.

Now let's analyze this Owens selection. If Irvin does indeed pack it in, I need a third receiver. As I stated in the sixth round, I had Mathis and Owens rated this close together. I chose Mathis then only because I expect him to be Chris Chandler's go-to guy. However, my opinion (and several others) is that Owens will easily supplant JJ Stokes as Steve Young's secondary target with the 49ers. Owens has a good work ethic, and a tremendous up-side potential. My belief is that he goes significantly higher than this in a keeper league, because in years to come, he will be a star player in this league. However, for this year, I will be satisfied with 8 scores and 800-900 yards coming out of this spot.

Having already drafted my two starting running backs, I need now to turn my attention to some quality backups. I don't have a TE yet, but with five similar TE's left, and only two other owners that need one, I'm unconcerned with that position right now. In addition, several backup QB's remain

The next couple of rounds will be time to go out on a limb and try to find some diamonds in the rough in the backfield. Since I'm looking to pick up two backup running backs, I'm going to take a shot on a couple of those two-headed running backs I mentioned back in my round 5 analysis.

My own personal opinion is that Harris is a more talented back than Rashaan Salaam. Since my opinion doesn't carry much weight in Halas Hall, my hope is that Dave Wannstedt finally gets tired of Salaam's propensity to cough up the ball and allows Harris "feature back" status.

"Ultraback" can catch the ball out of the backfield, and scuttlebutt out of Chi-town has the possibility of a two-back set with both Harris and Salaam playing important roles. While Harris certainly comes with question marks, most of the players you will see chosen from this point on have associated risks. What will separate the wheat from the chaff from this point forward is the ability to minimize those risks.

How the mighty have fallen.

Three years ago, Hampton was a first round draft selection in almost every league in America. Two sub-par seasons have relegated him to a ninth round pick now in FanEx.

The Giants were the last team from which a running back had not been selected in FanEx, so either Hampton or Tyrone Wheatley was a logical choice. Hampton had a 2-1 carry ratio over Wheatley last year, but only a 3.3 yard per carry average. However, the Giants in general were putrid. Having said that, I do not expect Wheatley to last to the end of the current round.

It is very possible I will get burned on this pick if new head coach Jim Fassel elects to go with the younger Wheatley as his feature back. However, as I believe that Harris is a better back than Salaam, I also think that Hampton still possesses a great deal of talent. Giants GM George Young apparently agrees, as he had the opportunity to allow Hampton to bolt to the 49ers last year, but elected instead to match San Francisco's offer to Hampton.

Whichever back Fassel crowns as his starter should put up much better numbers that either of these two combined for last year. Although neither had a stellar season in 1996, it seemed that all the Giants players pretty much lost any respect for Dan Reeves as it became apparent that he would not be returning as the head coach in 1997.

This is a "cross your fingers and hope for the best" pick for me. Both Hampton and Harris have a chance to put up better than average numbers, but neither is a sure thing. If either one does, I should feel quite pleased with my 8th and 9th round selections. If fate smiles upon me and both selections pan out, well boys and girls, can you say "trade bait"??

Round ten. Let's face it. Outside of placekickers, there is no one left at this stage who can be considered a sure thing. What we're looking for here is upside potential.

Right now, six owners have drafted their backups at QB, and the remaining six have not. Of the six with only one QB, three of them (Wonder, Destroyers, and the Horsemen) have two selections before I pick again. Methinks a few more will fall here. There are 12 NFL starting QBs who remain undrafted, but in my opinion there are only two worth having. Of the two, Kordell has far more potential.

The Steelers offense has been nothing if not conservative in the years since Joe Walton was run out of town. It often wasn't for lack of imagination so much as it was lack of talent behind center. For instance, Neil O'Donnell's best attribute was being able to hand the ball to a big running back. Nice work if you can get it, but it doesn't translate to big fantasy numbers.

In Stewart, the Steelers have their first legitimate big weapon taking snaps since the days of Terry Bradshaw. He can score both passing and rushing. He has a cannon for an arm, and can really spread the defense. One obvious weakness is the lack of experience in the receiving corps.

Mike Tomczak started most of last season, but Stewart came in for the final two games and was somewhat impressive. However in the Steelers' loss to New England in the playoffs, Stewart looked like a guy who had been playing wide receiver for 14 weeks. With a full training camp as the #1 guy, expect to see more composure from this talented athlete.

In all likelihood, Stewart will probably rank somewhere around the middle of the pack of QBs in 1997. That's what you'd expect from a guy drafted this low. BUT... with his talents (and a few breaks here and there) he has the potential to crack the top ten. And from here on in the draft, potential is the name of the game.

I went into this draft with a fairly short list of kickers, since I had originally intended to grab the first one in the 7th or 8th round. Circumstances beyond my control made me wait, and I'm glad I did. Although I would have drafted Jason Elam in the earlier round, I have Hanson rated #2, expecting that he will get more field goal opportunities than he did last year. The addition of Bobby Ross' offensive scheme should also help Hanson return to the league's elite. Being able to get him in the 11th round is a great value here.

Finally, I think "Mmmbop" is kind of a catchy tune, so Hanson is a good selection to keep the guys on my bench entertained (Hey, how much analysis can I give you on a kicker?)

I knew I wanted to go into the season with five running backs, and at the rate even the marginal ones are going, it was time to get my last one here in the 12th.

Jones' stock shot way up last week when the Steelers traded Erric Pegram to the Chargers for a conditional draft pick. Although it is reported that Jones will have to battle second year man Jon Witman for the backup position to Jerome Bettis, look for Jones to win that job for two reasons.

First is the fact that Witman has the tools to be a top notch fullback. He's a tough-nosed blocker who can catch the ball out of the backfield. Tim Lester, the incumbent fullback is adequate at best, and should easily be supplanted by Witman this year.

Secondly is Jones' talent. His troubles at San Diego State are well chronicled, and there is no reason to go into them here. Suffice it to say that had he not missed the first five games of last season, he would have been selected in the first or second round of the NFL draft.

OK Cahill, I'm convinced that you got the #1 backup for the Steelers, but he's still a BACKUP! What's up with that?

At this stage of the draft, all you are going to find are backups, so the strategy is to find the who has potential to receive the all important playing time. Even when Bettis was healthy last year, Bill Cowher found a way to make Pegram a fairly productive player. However as of this writing, Bettis isn't even healthy.

"The Bus" still has the lingering injury from last season which kept him out of mini-camp and will affect the beginning part of training camp. Add to that the loss of last year's incentive (Bettis became a free agent by virtue of gaining 1200 rushing yards in 1996) and some people believe that the motivation may well be lacking. Cowher isn't known for putting up with slackers (see Barry Foster, Bam Morris) and won't hesitate to replace Bettis with Jones if Bettis has lost his fire.

As a Steelers fan and season ticket holder, I'm hoping that I never have to use Jones because of Bettis' unproductivity. But, this game is about using your head, not your heart, and looking around at the remaining available running backs, the hard truth is that Jones may very well be a significant late round find.

If you're paying attention to the last couple of rounds, you're noticing that many owners have filled their starting positions, and are now taking chances on some of the rookie crop available. Although I don't yet have a tight end, every other team does. Unless there are several owners who make a run on backup tight ends, I'll likely wait until the last round to get one. In the meantime, I'm playing "Rookie Lotto".

There are still some WR's available in this draft who have a chance to be productive. I selected Kent because I think he'll step in ahead of Willie Davis and become the #2 receiver for Tennessee behind Chris Sanders. Sanders is a big-play kind of guy who runs deep. He also does little else. Steve McNair has a big-time arm, but you can only throw long so many times a game. Someone else has to be available to catch the shorter stuff. That someone else in this case will be Kent.

As the season wore on last year, Sanders' limitations became obvious, and because of them, Davis had a decent season. I look for Kent to be even more productive. I'd expect him to start out the year slowly, but to make significant strides as McNair improves throughout the season. My projections are 55 catches for 700 yards and 4 TD's, with HALF of his yardage and TDs coming in the last 4-5 games of the season.

I'm not going to give you the "I can't believe he's still available" shpiel, because I thought there was a better than 50/50 chance that Santiago would be available quite late in this draft. I was holding off on picking up a tight end, because frankly, I don't think they're all that important in fantasy football. If you've noticed, I even waited until several teams had their BACKUP tight ends before latching on to Santiago.

For the first time in recent memory, the Falcons will incorporate a tight end into their offense. Dan Reeves would have loved to have had a talented tight end in New York, but there weren't any. Santiago will be the first quality guy he's had since he left the Rocky Mountains.

Also factoring into this decision is the fact that new Falcons QB Chris Chandler (who unsurprisingly hasn't been drafted yet) likes to go to his tight end when he's in trouble (see Frank Wycheck). With Atlanta's offense switching from a pass blocking to a run blocking mentality, look for Chandler to be in trouble a LOT, especially in the season's early going.

Santiago's main competition for the starting position is 14 year vet Ed West. West always has been more of a blocker than a receiver, and Reeves prefers a TE who can catch the ball. Brian Kozlowski is also in camp, but probably won't make the final roster cut.

A shot in the dark as to Santiago's production? Let's say 2-3 catches per game for 30+ yards (translates to 40 catches for 500 or so yards) and he'll finish the season with 4 TD's. Not bad numbers for a starter you're drafting in round # 14.

Who knows what evil lurks in the heart of Bruce Coslet? First it was Darnay Scott in the coach's doghouse. At the end of last season, it was a given that Dunn would be the starter opposite Carl Pickens due to Coslet's dislike of Scott's (choose one) attitude, work ethic, ability, mother-in-law. Instead of taking advantage and seizing the opportunity, Dunn comes into mini-camp out of shape, and promptly goes to the head of Coslet's sh*t list.

Coslet seems like a fickle guy, who has a revolving door on the doghouse. In my opinion, it's only a matter of time before Scott does something that Coslet finds unacceptable and Dunn is starting again.

Even as the third receiver in a pass-oriented offense with a top-four fantasy quarterback, Dunn would provide value equal to his draft selection. Dunn is far too talented to waste away on the bench and will have be back on the #1 squad by the third game of the season, making him an outstanding selection as a 15th pick.

Now for something for you folks who follow FanEx closely enough that you're still reading my analysis into round 15. You get to make my final selection. That's right! E-mail me the player you would choose with the 16th pick along with a short analysis as to why, and I will choose the best one as my draft choice. My e-mail address is .

Nationwide, Prudential, Allstate...

It's all about insurance. With no outstanding needs on the team, it was time to look to see which ONE player I would be devastated to lose. I had to look no further than back to where we started this free-for-all and my #1 pick, Curtis Martin.

If any ills should befall Martin, the T-bolts are up a creek without a paddle. Well, Shaw is my paddle. He has as much talent as any of this year's rookie crop, but when assessing rookies, you have to look for opportunity as much as talent. As long as Martin is healthy, Shaw has no opportunity. If Martin would happen to be injured, Shaw is probably the closest RB in the league to Martin's running style. Coach Pete Carroll would probably utilize Dave Meggett more if Martin were unavailable, but Shaw would still be a force if he started in this offense.

Finally, while the temptation was there to take a flyer on a long shot who might pan out with this pick, I decided instead to play "safe". In FanEx, the free agents are bid upon using a 100 simulated dollar bankroll. I didn't want to take a chance on watching the bidding for Shaw get into the $35 range if Martin went down.

Insurance? It's about peace of mind.