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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Draft Rounds
1 | 2
| 3 | 4
| 5 | 6
| 7 | 8
| 9 | 10
11 | 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16 | 17
| 18
Round 4
   
   
  
 4.01
By Jerome Hickerson
I had
targeted Joe Horn or Javon Walker with this spot when I traded
my 3.06 downward in order to move this slot upward. When Horn
went off the board at 3.12 I received a trade inquiry from
another owner. We exchanged several messages regarding my
trading down a few spots. I struggled with pulling the trigger
on the trade not because the offer wasn’t good enough but
because I felt that a player available just a few spots later
would represent a different tier of player.
I think the
drop off between Walker and any other receiver on the board is a
significant drop. Gaining a round or even two later in the draft
did not seem worthwhile to me. Being able to grab a top tier
receiver with my 4th selection seemed to be the best
thing for my team. McAllister, Dillon,
Bell
, and
Walker
should be as solid as any other foursome in FAD.
Yes, there are contract issues with
Walker
. I mostly like the way
Walker
has handled those issues. With his comments, Favre opened the
door to a feud with
Walker
and
Walker
refused to go there. He has handled this contractual issue with
as much class as possible. I think the risk of this issue
continuing is a minimal and acceptable risk.
|
 4.02 RB
JJ Arrington (R)
By Duane Cahill
I don't know whether first to
defend the selection of Arrington, or to defend the selection
of my fourth running back in four picks. I'll begin with
the latter.
As you may already be tired of
reading, the FanEx format is such that you will automatically
start your best players each week. Two running backs are
sure to start, but with the flex player, your third running
back will also frequently wind up as a starter. And with
the scoring system, oftentimes quantity is as important as
quality. By choosing my fourth back with the 38th
overall pick, I've sealed the position with what should be
four NFL starters.
Do I lose the opportunity to grab
a top-notch receiver by taking my RB4 already? Probably.
But It's well-known that receiver is a volatile position from
year to year. If I were to take my first two receivers
in rounds 6 and 7, it's possible that I could wind up with a
top tandem similar to Derrick Mason and Chris Chambers.
No great shakes. But if I were to later in the draft add
a TJ Houshmandzedeh and a Donte Stallworth to my roster, I
suddenly have the makings of a formidable offense if the best
two of those four would start any given week. The
drawback to drafting this way is the pedestrian quarterbacks I
wind up with. In years past, I've had Brett Favre/Steve
McNair and Tom Brady/Drew Bledsoe. Everyone is going to
have a weakness, I choose mine at the QB position. Your
mileage may vary.
As to the "Why Arrington?"
question - it's about opportunity. Arrington is going to
a situation in Arizona where he should unseat incumbent Marcel
Shipp. Some suggest that it was Arrington's successful
final season at Cal (2018 yards and 15 TDs) that caused the
freefall of Aaron Rogers on draft day. Denny Green
passed on an opportunity to get Travis Henry fairly cheap,
opting instead for the rookie.
The knock on Arrington is his
size, but at 5'9" 215, he is similar in stature to last
year's first two fantasy picks, LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest
Holmes. With the Cards' line and the addition of Kurt
Warner (whose best years are past him, but who is worlds
better than Josh McCown) and with the receiving corps Arizona
boasts, Arrington is prime for a season befitting a RB2.
I'll take that for my RB4 any day.
|
 4.03 RB
Warrick Dunn
By Dolfi | Walls
Walls’ Take – With
this pick, I think we took the last running back in the third
tier. There were other RBs available, and some of them could
surprise, but Dunn was the last RB left without very serious
questions around them. We took our third RB, and I don’t think
we’ll taking another RB for a very long time in this draft.
Yes, Staley,
Bettis, Vikings RBBC, most of Denver RBBC and other runners are
out there, but they all have too many questions or concerns. I
also know that Atlanta has a RBBC going, but I think that the
distribution between Vick, Duckett and Dunn will stay about the
same as last year. There’s no reason for that distribution to
change. The Falcons had the best rushing offense last year, why
should they change the distribution of carries?
I did have a
doubt in the back of my mind, “He’s small for a RB, does he
wear down as the year goes on?” If he does, his carries per
game (CPG) wasn’t affected. Dunn was getting the ball all year
long. His average CPG last year was 16.6; over the last 4
regular season games, he averaged 24 CPG.
Dunn is 30
years old now, and as we all know 30 is the magic number where
RBs start to slide, I don’t see that happening with Dunn. I
think that the RBBC in Atlanta (and the RBBC he was in Tampa
with Alstott) will probably add a year or two to his career. He
is a safe pick, even at 30 years of age.
I was
personally thinking of going WR here again, and there were
plenty of good value WRs available, but to get Dunn here was too
good to pass up. We also didn’t reach for him, I think. If you
can get Dunn early in the 4th round (especially in a
RB hungry league like this), you’re taking him at a good spot.
Dolfi’s
Take – With our last pick, we had toyed with the idea of
picking Dunn, but had eventually settled on taking a top flight
wideout in Holt instead. With
Dunn still on the board at this point, it was practically a
given that we should take him now.
Dunn isn’t
going to have the upside that some backs will have, but we
don’t think he’ll have the downside those same backs do
either. Atlanta had
a fine rushing offense last year and made it all the way to the
NFC Championship game, before exiting the playoffs.
Teams who make it that far aren’t going to radically
shift gears in the recipe for success that got them there.
That means Dunn should get about the same number of
carries, receptions, etc from last season.
And 1100 yards from our #3 RB should make for a fun and
productive fantasy year.
|
 4.04 RB
De'shaun foster
By Shannon
O'Leary
With this pick in
the 4th round I decided I had to try to find a gem
in the rough. Well Foster has the talent, but can’t seem to
stay healthy. He looked awesome in the games he was featured
in last year. The local news has been talking him up, and
maybe I am getting somewhat caught up in that. I am also
considering the fact that it doesn’t look like
Davis
will make it back real soon. Also, there is not much talent in
the back field as was evident last year.
This
is a big gamble, and I really didn’t want to be gambling in
this type of league. This is what happens when one decides to
take a quarterback in the 1st round. You will
always find yourself behind the eight ball on running backs.
If
Foster is able to stay healthy (IF) then I could have a solid
pick
|
|
Commissioner Comments:
Back when I was publishing the Fantasy Football Digest, here's
what I wrote about Foster prior to his rookie season:
"Has injury history and a reputation for fumbling too
often, and some say he's a bit light at 212. Still, his
instincts take my breath away, and he seems to think as
quickly as he moves---and that's lightning quick. Good hands
too, good receiver out of the backfield. Drafting Foster is
gambling on greatness, as he seems to be the next Fred Taylor,
which of course is good and bad at the same time."
Now, three years later, those
words seem equally appropriate. Foster can't stay
healthy, but has shown flashes of brilliance and is still a
gamble. In FanEx, where RBs are as valuable as
uncirculated gold coins from the 19th century, one is wise to
take a chance on just such a one in the 4th round, especially
one with Foster's talent and possible opportunity to take over
the job of top dog. This gives O'Leary Peyton Manning,
Curtis Martin, and Foster to go with Joe Horn, so I'd be
looking to take a chance on another sleeper RB very soon, if
one still exists at that point.
|
 4.05 RB
Kevan Barlow
By Tim Hollar
This was one of those "hold your nose and pick him"
selections. Our friends at the 3/4 turn had
continued with the RB feeding frenzy flushing out some of the
better 3rd and 4th tier running backs, leaving a handful of
dregs to choose from.
Fortunately (with two picks in the 4th), I was in a position to
join the madness at 4.05, with the knowledge I would still land
a top flight receiver two picks later at 4.07. I
would have much preferred to add two receivers here, but I guess
a Kevan Barlow in the hand beats two back-ups in the bush.
On to Barlow... The choice was between he, Duce
Staley and to a lesser extent, Michael Bennett. In
the end, Barlow carried the least amount of negatives. No
one is immediately looking over his shoulder to steal his job.
No one is siphoning away his scores. And he does
have some abilities as a pass receiving back.
In fact, until last year Barlow was a high 4 / low 5 yards per
carry back as a share time player. With a new head
coach and quarterback by the Golden Gate, here's to hoping 2004
will be viewed as the aberration
at season's end.
|
 4.06 RB
Michael Bennett
By Del Pilar | Bonini
Who
We Took and Why:
In many ways, the
calculated risk we took by selecting TE San Diego Chargers TE
Antonio Gates blew up in our face as we watched helplessly as
six RBs came off the board following our selection, including
Arizona Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington, who was the player we
wanted here. Therefore, when our pick came up we had limited
options as we knew we needed to select a running back to make
sure our stable of three starters was viable. From there we went
with the back we felt had the most upside in Vikings RB Michael
Bennett who, if healthy, is a great value at this point.
Other
Candidates Considered:
The only other back we gave much consideration to was
Cleveland Browns RB Lee Suggs, though the name of Pittsburgh
Steelers RB Duce Staley was also brought up in passing. Suggs
has shown flashes of talent and if he could ever put it together
for a 16-game season he could be a great fantasy back. But his
injury issues and the addition of RB Rueben Droughns make
Bennett the more attractive pick, which got even better
following the news of a possible one-year suspension for RB
Onterrio Smith. In fact, if this does happen, not only is he
viewed (Bennett) as a value pick, if he pans out, could be
viewed as a “steal.”
Current
Strategy:
If
we would have known that all of those running backs would have
been gone by the time our fourth pick came around we almost
certainly would have secured our third RB and targeted someone
like Dallas Cowboys TE Jason Witten in the fourth round.
However, we were fortunate with the circumstances surrounding
Bennett and Smith, which only leaves Bennett’s injury woes as
a primary concern with this pick. Overall, we’re still on
track.
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
I couldn't fault this selection
even if I wanted to. With the river of RBs running
dry, I believe Bennett is the best 4th-round back taken in
this draft. Sure, his numbers were pathetic last year,
and he only played a half-season the year before; lots of
injury risk there thanks mostly to a bum foot. And with
Onterrio Smith and Mewelde Moore having provided good relief
in the interim, with Moe Williams vulturine the goal line, Bennett
just isn't seen as being very special.
But hold your horses, Tonto.
Note first that Bennett ended the season on top of that
crowded depth chart and is healthier than he's been in some
time, and now comes news that Smith has been suspended for the
entire 2005 season due to basically being even a bigger jerk
than Randy Moss. Just what the Vikes needed, more
controversy. Hey Coach, got some Super Bowl tickets I
can buy off ya?
Bennett seems sure to provide the
same solid run support he did early in his brief career, so he
seems a lock to hit 1000+ yds and at least six TDs, that being
a pretty conservative estimate. I wouldn't be surprised
to see 1300 and 10, with Williams aging, Moore providing an
occasional breather, and talented rookie Ciatrick Fason hoping
I'm wrong. Good pick with tons of upside, filling out a
terrific KFFL backfield that also includes Tiki and
Rudi...maybe we should rename Bennett "Miki"?
|
 4.07 WR
Andre Johnson
By Tim Hollar
Does it bother me to have a lead
WR and RB from the same team? Not in the least.
Especially in this scoring system where high score for the
week automatically start. In the words of Ray
Charles, "Just let baby do what baby do."
As a 3rd year wideout, Johnson looks poised to post a major
jump from his previously respectable (early to mid 20s)
levels. He's big, fast, strong and fearless over
the middle -- a younger version of Terrell
Owens according to some.
Given the total lack of competition for passes in their
offense and the Texans high powered 2005 opponents, it would
be a surprise if Johnson didn't challenge to become a Top 5-10
fantasy wideout
|
 4.08 RB
Duce Staley
By Tony Holm
Another risk/reward pick in
Duce Staley. I contemplated a couple of other players but to
my eye there looks to be a drop off in RB after Staley, so
I’ll get while the getting is good.
The guy ran wild last season behind that mammoth Steeler line
that is built for running. He posted 100-yard game after
100-yard game and even put up a 125-yard gem against the
Patriots. Staley was averaging almost 5 yards a carry going
into the half way point of the season when he blew out his
hamstring. He tried to rush back too soon and never was able
to get his legs back underneath him because of it.
Staley is still a very talented
runner. His talent and ability aren’t what’s in question,
it’s his ability to still do it for a season. With the
proper handling Staley should be a solid producer for me week
in and week out.
What I like about Staley is his
situation. He is still the primary ball carrier without
question, is running behind a line that can get it done and is
in a system that loves to run the ball.
I draft differently in the FAD in a number of ways. One is
that I target players on good teams and stay away from players
on bad teams as the FAD is a wire to wire race and I can’t
make weekly substitutions. Because of it, I’ll sometimes dig
a little for a player because he’s on what should be a
playoff team. Playoff teams play hard Week 1 through 17 and
don’t audition young talent when they’re out of the race.
The Steelers fit the bill as I expect them once again to
compete in the AFC and the proven Duce Staley is their
starting RB. It’s hard to ask for much more than that out of
a middle 4th round selection after the RB bone has
been picked clean.
|
 4.09 TE
Jason Witten
By Brady Tinker
I was certainly torn here -after
failing to move up to get Dunn - I felt the running backs that
were certain point getters were gone.
There are about 15 Wide Outs that
are the same guy if you will and about 8 Quarterbacks.
Getting to watch Jason up close
and personal here in Dallas I have seen his rapid growth as
both a blocker and receiver. He has become a personal
favorite of Coach Parcells who has a long history of making
TEs a feature part of his offenses.
Drew Bledsoe has always loved to
use his TEs so this by process of elimination was a very
solid and easy pick to make.
|
 4.10 RB
Lee Suggs
By Jim Butler
As I begin to fill out my backfield, I
am going to be looking for those rushers that have the potential to
have break out games. Since all the steady eddies of rushing have
already been selected, it's my only choice.
Most owners would prefer to fill their backfields with players that
make each weeks starting line-up selections easy for them. In this
league that is not the case. In a very limited roll last season due to
a turf toe injury, Suggs was still able to average about 90 yards a
game in total offense. He showed that he has great hands out of the
backfield and with the bonus to receptions our scoring system has, he
should get many bonus points for those regardless of the new Brown,
Reuben Droughns impact in the backfield.
|
 4.11 WR
Reggie Wayne
By Houston | Pitzer
We viewed Wayne as the last remaining No. 1-worthy wide receiver
and think that we will have a significant advantage with two
elite wide receivers. Wayne was virtually Marvin Harrison's
equal last year (97 more yards and three fewer TDs) and should
be again as Harrison turns 33 before the start of the season and
is at the back end of the peak of his career. We also debated
taking Pittsburgh's Hines Ward (who went one pick later) but why
take a receiver from a conservative, run-based offense when you
can have one from a record-setting passing offense?
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
Here's an excellent example of how
you can find high-round production in a later round.
In 2004 Reggie Wayne finally passed Marvin Harrison for most
receiving yards on the Colts. After years of wondering
if Peyton's place would always be to throw to Marvin and a
bunch of faceless posers, Reggie stepped up to the plate and
knocked it out of the park en route to Manning's
record-setting season. Harrison ultimately ended the
year slightly higher in FanEx scoring, but not enough farther
ahead that he warrants being taken in the 2nd round while
Wayne slides to the 4th.
This is the Bruce/Holt phenomenon
that we saw in recent seasons out of St. Louis, where
the more famous name (Bruce, at that time) would be
called in the first or second round while the fairly equally
productive yet lesser-known guy stayed available for longer
than seems likely. The Houston/Pitzer team now have the
best pair of wideouts in the draft, having Chad "Cell
Phone" Johnson to go with, and it seems unlikely anyone
will pass them in that department at this point.
|
4.12 WR
Hines Ward
By Greg Kellogg
Ward is an amazing athlete that has made the Pro Bowl in each of
his last four seasons. Last year his numbers dipped, as one
would expect with a rookie quarterback. Still Ward managed 80
receptions for 1004 yards and four TDs. He added 25 yards and
another TD on the ground. But the thing I love about having him
as my top receiver, especially one taken this late in the draft,
is that he has not missed a game in his entire NFL career. In
fact he has started all but one game in his last five seasons.
With Plaxico Burress gone, Ward should see even more
opportunities. A second year in the same system will only help
Ben Roethlisberger's performance which in turn should help
Ward's. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ward approach his career
high in receptions (112), yards (1,329) and TDs (12) this year.
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Guest
Comments:
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