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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Round 1
  
  
   
Draft Rounds
1
| 2 | 3
| 4 | 5
| 6 | 7
| 8 | 9
| 10 | 11
| 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16
1.01
RB Marshall Faulk STL
By Shannon O'Leary of FanEx
In my opinion, Marshall Faulk is the clear cut number one pick. With
some of the other FAD picks recovering from injuries, Faulk looks
to be the main top back ready to go. Barring injury, there is no
reason to believe that Faulk will not be in the top 5 in fantasy
scoring. He is a field general who gets plenty of opportunity. And
no I am not concerned about the rookie or Canidate eating into his
numbers.
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1.01
RB Marshall Faulk STL
By Ryan Early of ESPN Insider
With more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage in each of the past 3
seasons, Faulk is the no-brainer #1 selection.
The only worries about the NFL MVP are his age and the
increasing likelihood of injury. At
29 years of age with 8 seasons behind him, Faulk is at a point in
his career where his best days are behind him.
He has missed 2 games to injury in each of the last 2
seasons. The question is,
how steep will his drop-off in production be?
The answer is probably “not much.”
He may miss more games to injury and Rams coach Mike Martz
may attempt to save Faulk for the playoffs more than in previous
years, but Faulk has averaged over 150 yards a game the last 3
years, and at least 1.5 touchdowns a game since 2000.
Even a 10% drop in production to 135 yards and 1.35 TDs per
game would still more than warrant the top overall selection. The bottom line is that Marshall Faulk is a player that can push
your team over the top to a fantasy championship.
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1.01
RB Marshall Faulk STL
By Guest Dustin Koehler
Now did you expect someone else with the first selection?
I guess an argument could be made for Alexander or Green,
but they would be hard pressed to justify it.
Faulk is the most versatile offensive talent in the NFL.
He is the Associated Press NFL Offensive Player award
winner for the third straight year, posting over 2,000 yards from
scrimmage for the fourth season in a row.
He set a league record with his 26 TDs in 2000!
Obviously you don’t expect a repeat performance, but
I’ll take the 21 TDs he managed in 2001 as an encore.
Did I forget to mention that he only played in 14 games
both of those seasons? Wow!
No one can question his desire and ability to come back
from adversity and post great numbers despite injury.
I probably don’t have to spend too much time explaining why I
believe this is the only player you can take with the 1st
pick this season. It is my
belief that in order to win in most leagues, you need a stud RB.
Marshall is THE stud RB. He
will be 29 this coming season and it is his ninth in the league.
His production may indeed drop slightly this season, but it will
remain at a level above all other RBs.
Definitely a player you can build your fantasy team around
as long, as the Rams continue their overpowering offense.
I haven’t seen anything this off-season to suggest
otherwise. And last I
recall this was a redraft league.
By taking Faulk first, that owner already has the
advantage. I’ll
finish this brief analysis with some words from the man himself
with regards to his future.
"Most
people would say you've got no room for improvement -- that's most
people," he said. "But I know what's really going
on and I know the things I probably need to work on."
"It's
all fun," said Faulk, who was acquired for a second-round
and fifth-round draft pick from Indianapolis in '99. "Anytime
you get an opportunity to step on the field and compete, it's fun."
It’s hard to imagine Marshall getting any better than
he is right now. But
I’d be glad to let him win my championship single-handedly
trying, and having a little fun in the process.
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1.02
QB Kurt Warner STL
By TC Cannon of Fantasy
Asylum
Back-to-back Rams? Yes sir. Until
defenses find a way to stop them, a double dip of Faulk plus
Warner is at the top of the FF menu. Simply put, Warner is the commander of the most
potent offense in the league. No where else will you find a player
that promises production like he does - 4000 yards and
30+ scores are not his forecast projections, they are promised
numbers. He is very worthy of a top-three selection.
While there are a few others worth consideration at the 1.02, my
research stopped when it was realized that there are many, many
draftable rushers. As many as 15 different RBs could be drafted before my next selection. Even so.. the talent bucket is full of
quality ball carriers.
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1.02
QB Kurt Warner STL
By Guest Thom Eads
I find this particular selection to be in contrast to a great many
of the "expert" opinions that you will likely find. Does
that necessarily mean it is a "bad" pick? Quite
contrary, in my opinion. I find this to be the only
logical pick here at the second slot.
You will read over and over, ad neauseum, from the "stud
RB" theorists that Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, or perhaps
Ricky Williams is the only pick that can be made here. After all,
this team now must wait and watch 20 more selections before a RB
can be selected for this team. I am one who is dead
opposed to the "stud RB" theory. I have a very firm
belief that the first three rounds of any fantasy football draft
must be approached with one thought in mind... LITTLE OR NO RISK.
No one is likely to win their league in the first three rounds.
Several of the teams in any given 12 team league will lose their
league in those same three rounds. To those of you that say
Alexander or Green have to be taken here, keep in mind that just
last year, Alexander could be had in the 8th round or later. Ahman
Green was the same
three years ago. Two more words for those who say you have to take
a stud RB in the first.... Preist Holmes!
As for the Kurt Warner pick on its' own merits, an mild,
short-lived argument can be made for Peyton Manning. However, with
Warner, a fantasy owner can not really go wrong. No other player
is this certain after Marshall Faulk. Mark down 4200 yards, 35+
TDs and anything else is gravy. You are likely to need more than
one gravy bowl and several ladles.
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1.03
RB Ahman Green GB
By William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL
We entered round one looking at running backs and quickly
narrowed our choices down to three RBs, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes
and Shaun Alexander.
We also really liked Ricky Williams but with the first-round
being so important to fantasy teams we felt we needed to come away
with a proven guy that has little question marks surrounding him
entering the season. That player is Ahman Green, of the Green Bay
Packers.
RBs are so important to fantasy teams due to the lack of clear cut
No. 1 type players and we did not want to find ourselves behind
the 8-ball down the road from going with a player at another
position. Green is a dual threat, able to produce points through
rushing and receiving. In the past two seasons in Green Bay, he's
piled up 2,560 yards rushing, 19 rushing TDs while clicking along
at an average of better than 4.5 yards per carry. Combine that
with 136 receptions for 1,155 yards and 5 TDs and you have a very
productive RB that can spearhead the attack for a fantasy team
with consistent weekly results.
With the Packers completely revamping their WRs this off-season,
Green is likely to be an even bigger factor for the team because
QB Brett Favre will have confidence in him after two years in the
system. It will also take time for the WRs to gel, pointing
towards the coaching staff also relying more on Green early in the
year. With no true backup behind him at this time, there are
little worries of someone stealing touches away from him.
Thus, we have a true No. 1 back that is comfortable in his
offensive system, utilized well in that system, has a more than
competent offensive line returning in front of him and has the
always dangerous Favre at QB to keep defenses from keying in
solely on him.
While Holmes, Alexander and Williams could all be argued here, we
felt it in our best interest to continue our typical draft
strategy and go with the safe and dominating selection rather than
possibly reach for a player that has more questions than answers
already defined.
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1.03
RB Ahman Green GB
By Guest Rod Brehm
It's amazing what a fresh start and a little confidence can do for
a guy (of course, playing with the three time MVP doesn't hurt
either).
In a matter of 3 years, Ahman Green has gone from Mike Holmgren's
doghouse to one of the top running backs in the game. Green
is a tough runner between the tackles, has the speed to get around
the corner, and is a threat to take it to the house every time he
touches the ball. Oh yea, he catches a few passes now and
again (he led the Pack in receptions with 63).
After Faulk, there is a slew of backs fighting it out for the
title of second best RB. Most publications will have Green,
S. Alexander, R. Williams, C. Martin, and Tomlinson rated in their
top 6 RBs, but many of them won't agree on the order. Out of
that group, Green may be the safest pick. As he enters his third
year in the Packer's system, some experts think Favre may have to
lean on him even more due to the totally revamped receiving tandem
of Terry Glenn and second year pro Robert Ferguson. While I
agree, I also believe that WR Glenn will force teams to respect
the deep ball again, opening up more running lanes for Green.
Freeman and Schroeder simply didn't present any problems for
opposing defenses, therefore they could afford to load up on the
run. I also know that Favre could be throwing to you and me
and still toss 25+ TDs, so I wouldn't worry about him taking too
much time to get comfortable with his new receiving mates. ( In
case you were wondering, I'm 5' 11", have hands of stone, run
a 7.2 40, and have a 3 inch vertical non-leap.)
One of the only downsides I see to Green is that the Packers use a
lot of play action around the goal line, and TE Bubba Franks will
steal his share of TDs. That being said, I look for Ahman to
once again approach 2000 total yards and rack up 12+ TDs. He
is worthy of a top 5 pick in any draft.
1.03
RB Ahman Green GB
By Guest Dan Grogan of Grogan Sports
Ahman Green has just what you're looking for in a first round pick
- he's a proven solid performer with little risk. You're getting a
guy who is multi-dimensional and can score and get good yardage in
many ways. He has scored 24 times in the last two seasons (13
total TDs in '00 and 11 last season) and has topped 100 yards ten
times in the past two years. Seven of those performances came last
season. He was also one of just four backs to run for 150+ yards
on three occasions last year. Great versatility is part of his
make up too as he finished 5th last year among all RBs in
receiving yards (594).
The changes in Green Bay's receiving corps may actually help Green
this season. WRs like Terry Glenn, Robert Ferguson and Javon
Walker are going to have to prove themselves very quickly in this
system. However, in the meantime, the Packers and Brett Favre know
what they have in Green and we might see an even greater
dependence on him in '02.
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1.04
RB Shaun Alexander SEA
By David Dodds of Footballguys.com
Shaun's statistics are enough to
justify this pick alone:
Rushing: 309 carries for 1,318 yards and 14 TDs
Receiving: 44 catches for 343 yards and 2 TDs
But consider the following:
- Shaun had only 27 rushing yards after the first 3 games.
- Shaun only started 12 games
- Shaun had a league best 266 yard rushing performance (and 3 TDs)
against the Oakland Raiders (better than average defense)
- Shaun turns 25 in August.
- Shaun has the prototype RB body: 5"11 and 218 lbs.
- Seattle gets out the AFC West which has been traditionally very
strong against the run. The Seahawks move to the NFC West
which has Arizona and SF (typically soft against the run)
- Ricky Watters is no longer with the Seahawks and will not
vulture carries.
There might have been safer picks available, but I for one will
not be surprised when Shaun Alexander is the best player in the
NFL next year. Ricky Watters is gone which means that Shaun
will be on the field for virtually every play. His new
opponents look much weaker at defending the run and Shaun should
be able to exploit it with his breakaway speed.
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1.04
RB Shaun Alexander SEA
By Guest Tim Ludwig
I
am willing to bet that David Dodds never anticipated that Shaun
Alexander would be available at 1.04.
This may seem like a strange statement to some of the
Fantasy Owners viewing the FanEx Analysis Draft. After all, with
players like Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Ahmad Green, Kurt
Warner, and Ricky Williams; why would it be a surprise that a
running back with only one good year like Alexander would still be
available?
When
drafting in the early first round, you want three things in a
player. First, you generally want a stud running back. Though some
would disagree on that, you can get a good quarterback and wide
receiver later. Stud Running backs are far and few in between.
Second, you would like a player that has the potential to improve
on his numbers from the prior year.
This is not always the case but generally you would like to
have the chance to have the next Marshall Faulk (or Terrell Davis
in his prime). When you look up "upside" in the
dictionary, you will see a picture of Shaun Alexander next to it.
The kid had 1313 yards rushing and 343 yards receiving and 16
Touchdowns in only 12 starts. 12 starts? That is amazing.
Last, you want a player that will not be a bust. The old adage is
that you do not win a draft in the first few rounds but you can
lose one there. Any fantasy owner that had Jamal Anderson or
Terrell Davis in 1999 will whole-heartedly agree to this.
Alexander will not be a bust. He was a stud in college and has
been a stud in the pros every time he has seen action in a game.
There is always worries on a player before he has done it for 3 or
4 years in pros but trust me on this one!
I
obviously love this pick for the reasons I stated above. I project
that Alexander will have 1555 rushing yards, 451 receiving yards
and 16 touchdowns. Bravo to you Mr. Dodds, you just took your
first step to building a FanEx championship caliber team.
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1.05
RB Ricky Williams NO
By Chris Dolfi of FanEx
I had originally intended to take whichever of Alexander,
Green, or Williams would fall to me at this pick. I had
given VERY serious consideration to James here as well, despite
his ACL surgery.
Side note on why I wasn't too afraid of James' knee: He
claimed he couldn't make it to mini-camp because he was 'rehabbing
his knee'. Apparently it's not as bad as he might have the
Colts brass believe, since he was caught playing flag football in
Miami in a semi-final match against A-1 Security. He even
reported to on-lookers who asked about his knee after watching
James play WR, making hard cuts, and covering on man-to-man
defense, "It looked good, didn't it?" That
doesn't sound like a man with too many problems to me. But I
guess we'll see when his flag-football team squares off against
Noodles Cafe in the finals ;-)
So I'll stick with my head and pick Ricky instead of the feeling
in my gut that tells me James will be better than some folks
expect.
Williams is a head-case, that's a fact. But he's a head-case
on a team that loves to run the ball, and he'll get plenty of
chances to do so. Miami was a lackluster 23rd of the 31
teams in the NFL in rushing, and they expect Williams to really
help turn that around. That's a pretty good bet.
Williams yards have increased in each of his first 3 seasons, and
over the past two years he averages a nice 4.0 yards a carry, and
has been tossing in 450 yards in receptions to boot.
Consecutive 1000 yard seasons don't hurt, either. His TD
count has been lower than what people would have liked, but 9 TDs
in 2000 and 7 in 2001 is still a decent average.
I'll take
Ricky, his 1200 yards, his 8 TDs, and his wedding dress history any day.
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1.05
RB Ricky Williams
By Guest Carl Weatherford
Ricky
Williams gets a bad rap in regards to his health. Oh, he does get
hurt , but he's no Ryan Leaf. Williams is a rock stud but runs
like one. Hence, injuries follow. Moving to a new team is of even
greater concern than his injuries. Yes, Miami is a run oriented
team but the move is also across conferences. Why so RB crazy
guys?! There are plenty of great picks available, Ricky Williams
falling just short of the term "great pick". Non-risk
picks are almost non-existent and Ricky is a solid football player
so the pick makes sense.
1.05
RB Ricky Williams
By Guest Michael Zangrilli
Ricky Williams is a player that I really waver back and forth
on. I don't think he's one of the great RBs in the NFL
talent wise. His yards per carry (YPC) has been just 4.0 the
past two years. He doesn't break long runs, and thus isn't
much of a threat to score long TDs. His receiving numbers
have been decent to good, but I wouldn't put him in the class of
Faulk, Holmes, Green, Barber, or Garner. Quite frankly, I
don't think Williams is all that great of a FF player.
What gets me leaning the other way is the situation that Williams
is in. Look at Eddie George in 2000: great fantasy numbers
strictly because he got so many touches and all the goal line
looks. George's YPC wasn't good - just 3.7. The
questions for Ricky Williams are: 'Will he get over 400 touches'
and 'Will he score a lot of TDs, mostly from short yardage'?
I don't see Williams catching as many passes, but his rushing
opportunities should increase. The TD thing is just so hard
to predict. Miami has made TD machines out of poor RBs
before (K. Abdul-Jabbar and Lamar Smith), so it's easy to say that
Williams is a lock for 15 TDs.
The bottom line is that Williams is in a place where he can put up
huge numbers. But he won't do it on his own, and that
worries me. I much prefer RBs that don't rely on tons of
touches and goal line TDs; RBs that have high YPC, breakaway
speed, and in general, have the ability to make things happen on
their own. I feel Williams is too risky to take at #5, but
this could be his big year. Personally, I would strongly
consider the elite WRs and QBs over Williams because I think some
of them have less risk with just as high a reward.
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1.06
RB Edgerrin James
By Jerome Hickerson of
TalkFootball.com
I wanted
Ricky Williams with this selection. I made an effort to trade up
to 1.05 when Williams fell that far, but was unable to reach a
deal.
I never
considered any position other than a RB with this slot. The only
QB I would have considered was Kurt Warner and he was off the
board. And this slot is too early for me to have considered a
WR.
So my
choices were narrowed to RBs Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, Eddie
George and Edgerrin James. Holmes was the guy that I came
closest to selecting but I just couldn't bring myself to pull
the trigger on him. He may well produce another high performance
season, but something made my skin crawl when I tried to select
him with the 6th overall selection.
I elected to
gamble on James. And make no mistake about this -- I know that
this pick is a gamble. I wanted to trade downward, but trading
down requires that someone wants to trade up and that wasn't the
case here. On balance, I decided that Holmes, George, and Martin
were also gambles and that the greatest upside was with James.
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1.06
RB Edgerrin James
By Guest Mike Krueger of FF
Today
I must echo the sentiments of Mr. Eads (see analysis of 1.02
Warner)...
"little or no risk" is a good play here, especially in
the first round. And, although James and the rest of "Da
Squad" seem to be tearing up the local recreation
flag-football league, he is coming off a knee injury and with
other quality first-round-types still on the board, the James
selection seems like an unnecessary risk. Let's not forget that
his torn ACL occurred October 25th of last year. The recovery time
of today's athlete is truly amazing and it's certainly possible
James could come out Week 1 and remind us all that he is still the
2nd best all-around RB in the league. However, I'm from the
"Show-Me" state, so I'll have to see it before I believe
it.
If nothing else, Edgerrin will be one of the more interesting
players talked about as draft time approaches. You're likely to
see him taken anywhere from mid-first to late-second round which
makes for great debate and interesting discussion.
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1.06
RB Edgerrin James
By Guest Tom Walls of FanEx
Friend
I was on the FanEx chat room the other night and I made the
following stupid comment, "If this was August and if we knew
E. James was 100% healthy, he would have been a top 3 pick."
Well, duh! Of course he would be a top 3 pick. This guy is great
(I am choosing to ignore his work on Da Squad, because I think it
is a non-issue, unless he rips an ACL playing for them (How many
Miami area FF teams will be named Da Squad, by the way?).
This is a very good pick at this point, though. There is some
risk, but very good reward. D. Rhodes did a very capable job as E.
James' back up last year, but he just isn't as good. Granted,
there won't be as many break away TDs for James this year because
of his injury, but he should still get you the scores you need as
a top flight draft pick. Keep an eye on E. James, if he is
healthy, he should be a top pick in your draft come August. Let's
face it, that's what these guys are doing this for-help for FF
players- not their own glory , right? That is a handicap with this
league, it's very early in the year...
Don't worry about Dungy coming on as head coach, he's a smart guy
and will leave the offense alone. If anything, this means more
running opps for James as the team will probably be ahead more
often than they were last year.
And, what's this? The Texans and the Jaguars on the schedule twice
this year? Four games of good stats...NICE!
Seriously, a good pick at this point, but I am a strict proponent
of the stud RB theory. Moss would have been a very good pick too,
but I feel James was the only other safe pick here, and the owner
can concentrate on other positions with their next few picks.
This owner made a good, safe pick. Good job.
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1.07
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
By John Hansen of The
Guru Report
This was a very tough call between Tomlinson and Priest
Holmes. While Tomlinson has only a year under his belt, I
have to believe he has a better chance of being "the real
deal." One issue with Holmes this year is I think they'll be
a little less of a reliance on him because the Chief passing game
will be better. While Holmes should get more scoring
opportunities because of that, FB Tony Richardson does remain to
steal some of those TDs. Tomlinson is clearly his team's
only viable weapon at RB/FB and he is without question one of the
top go-to guys at his position, so I'm happy to take him here.
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1.07
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
By Guest Philip Gentles of ProFantasySports
LT1?
LT in the 1st ? Bit of a reach don't you think ? Tomlinson IS
a solid back coming off an impressive rookie season but I just
don't consider him a top 10 fantasy player.
I was actually hoping the run on RBs would have ended at this
pick. Manning, Culpepper, Harrison, Moss, Owens......all still
available and all a class above LT. Passing won't be much of an
option in San Diego this season so look for teams to key in on the
Charger rushing attack. He'll still produce numbers, but nothing
exceptional.
Now I understand the importance of having at least 1 stud RB on
roster. So if a back is a must at this spot, I think a more
established back like Curtis Martin or more explosive back like
Priest Holmes would have made safer selections.
[Editor note: The other side of the coin is that
John Hansen is the most successful owner in FanEx history. He
often surprises the membership with his early selections and he's
positive September record.]
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1.08
Payton Manning
By Chris Rito of FF
Mastermind
and Carlos Panizo of STATS,
Inc.
We had not anticipated that Randy Moss AND Peyton Manning
would both be here at this selection. That made the choice tough.
Ultimately it boiled down to making the safer pick since in the
FAD you cannot make roster changes.
You know that you will get 4000 and 30 TDs from Manning, no matter
what (plus a rush TD or two). You know he is consistently
productive game to game. You know he will be in the lineup every
week, having only missed one snap in his career. In fact,
this gives us an edge since we really can wait longer than anyone
else to grab a QB#2, thus allowing us to stock our depth at RB-WR
a little better during this draft. "Dungification" of
the offense will not be an issue with Tom Moore still calling the
shots there.
But you also know his weapons are prime-time caliber, possibly
even better than last year with the addition of Qadry Ismail and
the development of Rhodes, Wayne and Pollard. The Colts' schedule
is very pass-friendly this season as well, including new
divisional rivals JAX-TEN-HOU who all look to have
less-than-average secondaries. And the Colts' defense is still
suspect so he will be throwing.
Moss should be the #1 WR in 2002, and he will win several games
for some owner all by himself, and the Vikes have promised to make
his numbers ridiculous... but ultimately we chose to take the
player that we would not have to worry about or wonder about for
16 weeks. FAD rules made this choice for us - know your system
before drafting!
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1.08
Payton Manning
By Guest Stephen Hatfield
I have to agree with Manning over Moss. Frankly I was surprised to
see both available at 1.08 (which is my way of saying I didn't
think Tomlinson or Holmes should have been taken over Moss and
especially Manning). Rito was correct in stating one must keep the
rules in mind when drafting. Manning has been very durable in the
NFL. Yes, he missed a couple of games last year but that was an
unusual injury. He is a good bet to be there the whole season.
Also, I feel the Colts will be fighting for the playoff lives in
December, therefore Manning will be playing rather than sitting.
Why not Moss? The Vikings and Tice have done nothing but talk
about how they must get the ball to Moss. However, Randy is Randy.
Who is the more stable personality, Moss or Manning? (duh!) Moss
has also been pretty durable but wide receivers have a better
chance to miss games than quarterbacks.
Why not Priest Holmes? At this point in the draft, there are
enough running backs left, all ranked about the same (IMHO) that
one will be available for these guys in round 2. Yes, running
backs are important but remember, there are no changes allowed
after the draft. Manning or Holmes, which has a better chance to
be injured? Also, the Chiefs look to pick up their passing this
year which may lessen Priest's numbers.
Bottom line - just the pick I would have made (and been smiling
broadly!). Good job guys!
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1.08
Payton Manning
By Guest Brian Kreklau of Wild
Card Sports
Taking any QB other than Kurt Warner in the first round this
year, seems foolish to me. I thought Chris Rito really reached on
this selection.
One of his comments included, "You know that you will get
4000 and 30 TDs from Manning, no matter what." While
this may be true, he failed to mention that Manning has shown the
propensity to thrown more than 20 interceptions a season. In the
scoring system of this league, those 20 INTs make his net TD
passes equal to 15. In comparison, Rich Gannon tossed 27 TDs last
year with only 9 INTs. That gives the Raider a net of 18 TDs. Jeff
Garcia tossed 32 TDs and only 12 INTs for a net of 20. Brett Favre
tossed 32 and had 15 INTs for a net of 17. Just looking at
the positives without weighing the negatives can give a drafter a
skewed outlook at a player.
Another comment that Chris made regarding his selection should
also come up for debate: "Dungification" of the
offense will not be an issue with Tom Moore still calling the
shots there." That is one opinion, but my opinion is
that Tony Dungy is the new head coach and will overrule Tom Moore
in crunch time. Coach Dungy has been a fantasy QB killer for many
years, preferring to play it safe and play field position. He has
been a winner in the NFL in the regular season and he sticks to
what he knows. I expect Manning to still be a solid fantasy QB
this year, but I also expect his overall numbers to go down. I
thought the Chris would have done better by looking to either
trade down with a RB-hungry (or Moss-hungry) owner in this spot.
We'll see when Brett Favre/Jeff Garcia get taken in this draft and
see how far Chris may have been able to move down to secure QBs of
the same, if not better, caliber of Manning.
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1.09
WR Randy Moss
By Greg Kellogg of Komments
Randy Moss was thrown to 153 times last year. In fact,
that is the most he has been thrown to in his career.
Fifteen more times than his previous best (1999). This year
Head Coach Mike Tice says he wants Moss to be the recipient of 40%
of all passes thrown. That would work out to 222 passes
thrown his way based on last year's attempts (555).
Now I obviously don't believe he will get that many passes thrown
his way, but even if he only gets 30 more he should dominate and
could easily break every single season record there is.
I actually tried to trade down with the three drafter's behind me
because I thought Moss might fall one or two more spots.
When they didn't bite, I did.
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1.09
WR Randy Moss
By Guest Mark Howe
Randy Moss at this spot is an ugly selection, making
the last three picks the good, the bad, and the ugly. I'll let you
decide on the good and bad.
As for the ugly, Moss is a head-case without the wisdom of his
mentor, Cris Carter, to get him through the season. I honestly
don't think the guy will finish as a fantasy stud this year
without the benefit of the future Hall-of-Famer lining up on the
other end of the line.
I liken him to Ryan Leaf, but with talent. He has the physical
size and the physical ability to get the job done, even if he's
slow coming off the line when the play isn't going his way. It's
his attitude and mental toughness that will drive Culpepper and
Co. nuts this season.
I will have Moss lower on my board this year, behind Owens and
Harrison, and will likely not get him in any league.
As a side note: I may not have taken Moss ahead of Curtis Martin
and am surprised the Jets RB slipped behind a few other highly
touted younger RBs higher in the draft. Of course, I'm not a
fantasy expert, either.
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1.09
WR Randy Moss
By Guest Lee Hauenstein
Moss this early in the draft is a big reach. With the
RBs still available the safer and better pick would have been RBs
Curtis Martin or Corey Dillon. From my experience the past couple
years, RBs have really come at a premium. During the course of a
season many of the top RBs have went down to injury the past
couple seasons (e.g. Fred Taylor, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis).
If Mr. Kellogg is some sort of magician and can psychically make
Randy Moss want to play, then its a good pick, but I do not see it
happening.
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1.10
RB Curtis Martin
By Duane Cahill of Pitt
Tribune-Review
Knowing your opponent is overrated.
When Rito took Peyton Manning at 1.08, there was no doubt in my
mind that Randy Moss would be my selection at 1.10. After
all, Kellogg's history is to draft three "stud" running
backs, usually with his first three picks.
When Kellogg offered the trade down that he mentioned in his
analysis, I scoffed at the notion, thinking that only TC Cannon
would be inclined to make such a trade. However, TC wasn't
one of the principals to whom the trade was offered. Kellogg
would be stuck with his pick, take a running back, and Moss would
fall to me. So perfect.
Swing and a miss, strike three!
Martin gets the nod over Priest Holmes at this selection because
of history. Martin is the proven horse, and still has a very
good offensive line in front of him. LaMont Jordan awaits in
the wings, but C-Mart still has another couple of good years in
him before he begins to yield carries to the sophomore. Had
this been a keeper draft, I'd have likely taken Holmes instead.
Whether I believe in the "stud running back" theory or
not (I don't) is irrelevant to this selection. Martin is
probably the safest pick on the board, and I firmly believe that
you cannot win your league in the first four rounds -- you can
only lose it there by taking stretches and risks. No stretch
for me. Curtis, welcome back to Pittsburgh!
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1.10
RB Curtis Martin
By Guest James Wilsey
I agree whole-heartedly with the value of this
selection. Curtis Martin is a 30 year old RB. He is a seven year
veteran out of the University of Pittsburgh. He stands in at
5-11 and 205 lbs. He is a solid work horse... has only missed one
game to injury. How many RBs can you say that about?
Martin's lifetime numbers are very impressive. He averages 334
carries for 1323 yards a season (4.0 yd average per carry) As well
as 46 catches for 334 yards a season (7.1 average) and averages 10
total TDs a season.
Last year Curtis had 333 carries for 1513 yds and 10 TDs plus
another 320 receiving yds.
However, last year Curtis was held out of the endzone the last 7
regular season games. During those 7 games the Jets went 4-3. If
you take out week 10 win against Miami (24-0) the other 6 games
were decided by a total of 19 points. So it seems that Curtis
Martin goes so does the Jets.
I full very confident that Curtis is far from slowing down... last
season he had career best numbers in total yards and average per
carry as well as second best rushing TD total.
I project another 300 plus carries, 1450 rushing yds, 10 rushing
TDs, 45 receptions for 350 yds and 2 receiving TDs.
As the 7th RB taken and 10th pick overall Curtis Martin will fill
the role of stud back and not falter. Of the other 2 backs taken
after Curtis, (Holmes and Dillon) Martin is and will be more
consistent on a weekly basis.
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1.10
RB Curtis Martin
By Guest Kirk Bouyelas
Duane... Thank your lucky stars that the $100,000,000 man did not
fall to you at this spot. You might have been tempted to take Moss
with the lure of potential greatness, then disappointed by the
reality of a spoiled, lazy, self centered player. Can you tell I'm
not high on Moss? I tried to be subtle.
I totally agree with you're assertion that you "cannot win
your league in the first four rounds - you can only lose it there
by taking stretches and risks." That said, you know what
you're getting with C-Mart. He's a proven commodity. Barring an unforeseen
injury, there's no risk with this pick.
Now I know the nay sayers out there are shaking their heads and
mumbling about our sanity, but let's look at the facts. C-Mart may
not be a flashy pick like Moss, but he's a reliable pick. He's
been a steady, productive player every year, for the last eight
years. Need proof? In 2001, Martin accumulated over 1,800 yards
and had 10 scores. In 2000, Martin racked up over 1700 yards and
had 11 scores. If that's not a safe, reliable pick, I don't know
what is.
Take solace Duane. You did not "strike out" on this
pick.
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1.11
RB Priest Holmes
By Tony Holm of The
Prognosticator
From John Hansen (1.07) on, folks have thought about Priest
Holmes but always found one guy they thought was a little more of
a secure pick. Around 1.11 there are still a few safer picks,
but not at the RB position. Like Duane, I don't subscribe to
the stud RB theory but the requirement to start 2 RBs each week
in FanEx does add a lot of value to a thin crop of RBs and Priest
Holmes has fallen far enough.
Holmes had an incredible 2001 season, besting all RBs but Marshall
Faulk in fantasy points. The debate this season is can he
repeat that effort with an improved Kansas City receiving unit?
I say no. I just don't see how he can once again rush for
1,555 yards and 8 TDs while hauling in 62 receptions for 614 yards
and 2 TDs. Those are gaudy numbers to beat. But what I
think Priest Holmes did show is that he is an extremely capable running
back in the NFL. You don't have a 2,169 yard season with 10
TDs and label it a fluke.
The guy has demonstrated he can play at an elite level.
There is still a lot of upside with this pick because if Holmes
does play at the same level he did in 2001, I just nabbed the 2nd
best RB in the draft as the 8th RB selected, that's solid value.
If Holmes has a soft landing as I expect, then I probably ended up
with the 8th best RB in the draft, at least I've got upside.
This also is a relatively low injury risk pick as Holmes started
every game last year, has low miles and is gaining the much loved
"fantasy workhorse" moniker.
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1.11
RB Priest Holmes
By Guest Hunter Catlett
This is almost too easy for me. I love
this pick, and not just because I went to graduate school at the
University of Texas. Last season, Priest Holmes was amazing.
He put up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 10 TDs.
And he did all of this despite Trent Green having an atrocious
year and the Chiefs having virtually no receiving threat other
than TE Tony Gonzalez.
Both the Chiefs and offense AND their defense should be improved
this year, and that should only help Holmes. As Tony Holm
mentioned when making the selection, this is a very good value
pick even if Holmes does fall off some in production. Personally,
I see very little drop-off for the Priest this fall. The
Chiefs struggled all of last year to find a team identity.
It appeared they found that identity over the last five weeks of
the season, when they went 3-2, with the two losses coming to
Oakland and Seattle by a combined five points. During that
stretch, Holmes AVERAGED 26 carries a game (never going below 23)
and over 115 yards rushing per contest. He also averaged 4.4
receptions and almost 47 yards a game over that same span.
Those numbers show a feature, workhorse back who is just a stud.
Holmes is a potential top-2 RB. At worst he is a top-5 back.
Yet Tony gets him at the 11th slot and as the 8th RB selected.
I don't care if you use brackets, buckets, VBD, BVD, tarot cards,
whatever; this was an excellent pick with great upside.
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1.12
RB Corey Dillon
By Emil Kadlec of FF
Pro Forecast
With five straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons to his credit,
Dillon will once again be the Bengals primary offensive weapon.
I'm looking for an improved passing attack -- and the fact that
Cincinnati will open camp with all 11 offensive starters already
signed to contracts for the first time in ages -- to keep the
former University of Washington standout among the league's elite
running backs. ... Dillon, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on
his left knee earlier this year, has already begun working out and
is expected to be at full speed long before training camp opens.
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1.12
RB Corey Dillon
By Guest Ryan Houston
While writing the analysis for
Emil's pick it came clear to me that Emil had also taken Anthony
Thomas with the following pick. Tell me you wouldn't love
to have that combo of studs in your backfield! Personally,
I rank Anthony Thomas and Eddie George ahead of Corey
Dillon, but I still love the pick. The opportunity to pick
two solid running back bookends at the end of the first
round is always the way to go. Very Solid!
Some will probably argue that Emil should have went with Anthony
Thomas or Corey Dillon and either Terrell Owens or Daunte
Culpepper. I disagree. Considering that Garcia,
Culpepper and McNabb are still on the board and the only WR
taken in the first round was Moss, there is plenty of talent at
those positions still available. If he had chosen not to
select Thomas with the first pick in Round 2, his RB2 would have
been somebody like Duce Staley who is not nearly as
consistent as Dillon or Thomas.
In retrospect, Emil can look at adding solid WRs in the next
rounds and a QB later in the draft. This was a great
strategy at this stage of the draft. Furthermore, those that
didn't draft RBs in the first round were clearly hoping that
Emil wouldn't snag two at the top of the round. This
causes those owners to take players they need higher than
anticipated and causes better players to slip down the board.
Something that Emil, clearly, wants to happen.
Overall, I think Emil did a great job and these picks clearly
define why running backs are so important.
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